Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76710733fa86c745f85abcacc614f02f5986b3f0e66210f56a71550a7bf45a49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,955$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…b9c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,813$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 599.99$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 587.82$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 21c | 476.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 22c | 410.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 71c | 404.07$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 398.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 310.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 306.07$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 293.28$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 249.49$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 232.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 226.87$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 9c | 218.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 218.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 204.6$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 25c | 204.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 27c | 201.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 28c | 199.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 199.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 190.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 66c | 180.83$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 172$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 169.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 28c | 163.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 161.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 151.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 150.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 150.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 149.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…6a94backed Yes | 27c | 143.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 143$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 138.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 129.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 23c | 126.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 27c | 120.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 116.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 23c | 115.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 108.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 21c | 94.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 24c | 84.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 23c | 75.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 76c | 70.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 66.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 27c | 64.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…087bbacked Yes | 28c | 58.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 69c | 54.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 52.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 51.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 32c | 46.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 45.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…0200backed Yes | 30c | 43.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f12…e708backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 73c | 34.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 80c | 29.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 66c | 25.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 72c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 20.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 77c | 17.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 77c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.