Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7d3328e5d995ef527eb7fc4971f61759c77416b258696f66122d618a262adb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 1,477$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 20c | 1,296$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.99 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…b9c6backed Yes | 1c | 1,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 5c | 915.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 627.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 526.1$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 27c | 511.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 30c | 393.2$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 306.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 299.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 295.82$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.94 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 27c | 272.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 269.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 255.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 253.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 248.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 234.6$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 228.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 42c | 221.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 219.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 214$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 30c | 204$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 196.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 184.39$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 183.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 181.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 31c | 177.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 160.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 76c | 157$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 22c | 152.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 145$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 34c | 134.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 128.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 128.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 38c | 127.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 33c | 120.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 21c | 119.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 113.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 40c | 108.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 106.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 100.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 78c | 99.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 67c | 92.56$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 24c | 90.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 90.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 18c | 90.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 30c | 88.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 81.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 69.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 64.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 31c | 61.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 32c | 61.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 28c | 58.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 56.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 54.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 53.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 53.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 53.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 40c | 53.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 31c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 40.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 40.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 76c | 39.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…07e8backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…03bebacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 34c | 29.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 67c | 27.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 70c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 67c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.