Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc79fa24d14455f1bfd3df6fd6d1c6f51f378adfc25c01cab2096374d68aaf8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 11c | 3,178$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,633$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 1,301$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 9c | 1,018$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 781.81$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 16c | 689.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 2c | 540.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 538.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 188 | 4.8%9 W · 179 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 529.74$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 5c | 493.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 14c | 483.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 9c | 454.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 7c | 403.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 332.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 13c | 326.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 292.54$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 282.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 14c | 263.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 12c | 197.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 195.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 181.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 10c | 180.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 12c | 170$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 18c | 166.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 159.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…64d2backed Yes | 7c | 146.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 36c | 130.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 9c | 129.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 62c | 124.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed No | 66c | 120.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 38c | 106.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 105.95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 69c | 105.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 28c | 104.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 15c | 99.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 15c | 95.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 23c | 90.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed No | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 85.74$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…843ebacked Yes | 35c | 84.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 22c | 82.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 63c | 78.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 18c | 72.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 14c | 72.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 66.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 62.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 64c | 62.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 42c | 60.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 41c | 59.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 51c | 59.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 53.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 48.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 42c | 47.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 79c | 40.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 43c | 39.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 38.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 44c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 38c | 31.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 31.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…3ae9backed Yes | 63c | 23.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…638abacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 14.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.