Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25f430568b31658805ef0366020ed4a559dfff082711eea90c30a1fae19b9496
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 1c | 5,019$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,977.91 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 1,294$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.11 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 1,217$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.29 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 2c | 998.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.13 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 948.09$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.82 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 797.92$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 4c | 745.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.12 | 491 | 52.3%257 W · 234 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 667.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed Yes | 9c | 644.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.12 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 8c | 589.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.13 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 2c | 561.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.8 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 523.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 515.21$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.38 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 2c | 513.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.25 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 495.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 5c | 494.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.16 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 3c | 456.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.36 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 455.06$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 2,140 | 53.2%1,139 W · 1,001 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 351.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.55 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 349.41$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.4 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 17c | 334.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 58c | 323.71$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 302.14$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 334 | 46.4%155 W · 179 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 21c | 285.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.16 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 14c | 277.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.83 | 286 | 37.4%107 W · 179 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 50c | 249.86$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 12c | 172.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 18c | 168.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 15c | 165.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 164.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 9c | 146.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 12c | 144.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 143.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 142$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 141.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 141.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 11c | 139.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 221 | 48.4%107 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 135.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 713 | 33.5%239 W · 474 L | +33.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 45c | 129.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…d08abacked Yes | 73c | 128.34$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 11c | 122.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 15c | 112.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 10c | 107.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 104.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 17c | 97.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7968…615abacked Yes | 14c | 94.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 93.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 52c | 92.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 41c | 90.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 43c | 78.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a0…a912backed No | 75c | 77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 66.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 59c | 61.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 477 | 62.7%299 W · 178 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 23c | 58.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 38c | 52.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b11…a02dbacked Yes | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…1303backed Yes | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 53c | 28.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 23.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 939 | 2.4%23 W · 916 L | -386.8wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0fab…1ca3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 15.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.