World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ed542f33a23de6539957024ec2628c6d14dd7b7bc17b45e667c2963282cbed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 1,239$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 6c | 799.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 6c | 713.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 628.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 7c | 516.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 5c | 428.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 387.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 24c | 330.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 4c | 305.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…72d3backed No | 78c | 261.19$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 7c | 217.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 9c | 201.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 11c | 194.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 179.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed Yes | 16c | 164.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 154.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 138.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 130.47$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed Yes | 27c | 69.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 74c | 30.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.