World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bb053496a535506b785c8ffd3daf94f7a363e57fbebb79f3e9f19c506e87c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 2,661$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.3 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,768$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 21c | 962.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.62 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 899.29$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.94 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 685.98$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 437.88$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 431.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +196.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 416.97$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 406.79$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 26c | 368.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 36c | 342.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 333.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 268$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 241.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 226.7$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 223.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 12c | 208.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 205.86$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 195.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 189.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 186.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 182.5$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 29c | 171$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 170.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 48c | 169.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5c…ce66backed No | 64c | 155.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 151.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 135.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 129.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 120.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 64c | 120.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…72d3backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 114.6$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 113$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 101.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 100.45$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 62c | 100.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 99.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 97.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 94.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 24c | 94.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 94.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 72c | 87.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 85.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 22c | 84.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 27c | 81.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 26c | 78.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 76.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 73.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 71.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 69c | 61.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 65c | 60.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 78c | 60.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 60.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 51c | 56.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 55.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 20c | 54.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 53.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 53.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…3e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 52.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 54c | 51.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 37c | 50.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 48.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 48.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 47.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 67c | 47.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 46.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 30c | 45.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 42.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 42.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 40.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 59c | 38.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 76c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.