World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x774d64b6680a79b8bd8aba93ee6e91407b973b6516efa252b5814373eb24f20d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 968.62$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.35 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 61c | 899.62$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 54c | 889.32$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.32 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 721.94$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.94 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 42c | 692.86$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.35 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 396.74$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 54c | 337.29$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.86 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 306.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 296.84$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 295.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 281.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.12 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 277.91$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 10c | 271.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 45c | 262.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 65c | 236.91$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 236.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x559c…aeedbacked No | 36c | 232.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 210.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 209.68$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 205.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 68c | 197.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 192.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 185.61$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 178.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 21c | 167.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 57c | 157.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 153.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 149.8$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 149.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 144.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 141.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 60c | 121.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 118$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 39c | 118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 103.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 61c | 98.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…72d3backed No | 24c | 98.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 98.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 22c | 97.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 32c | 97.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 41c | 93.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 90.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 20c | 89.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 87.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 86.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 48c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 57c | 79.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 64c | 77.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 46c | 76.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 43c | 74.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 73.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 52c | 72.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 59c | 71.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 34c | 70.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 40c | 65.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…3342backed No | 37c | 63.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 59c | 60.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 46c | 60.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 65c | 59.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 56.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 58c | 56.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 64c | 53.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 43c | 52.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 76c | 49.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 46.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 28c | 46.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 46.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 46.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 30c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 39c | 43.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 74c | 42.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 34c | 38.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 44c | 37.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 37.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.