Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a2767987a06b92bbaf6edc665b2c6ce9424488c1ff93e86aa9b78dff6680ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 2c | 1,492$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…da2cbacked Yes | 11c | 917.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 652.16$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 5c | 646.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 635.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 36c | 516.52$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.66 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe55…516ebacked Yes | 3c | 509.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 506.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 493.9$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 475.74$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 33c | 463.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.35 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 423.29$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 401.35$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 398.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 33c | 364.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.48 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 355.77$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 3c | 352.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 38c | 313.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 37c | 299.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 298.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 64c | 297.43$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 12c | 281.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 279.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 10c | 252.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 10c | 248.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 211.8$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 210.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 208.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 190.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 179.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 12c | 174.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 34c | 174.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9c…ace4backed Yes | 21c | 171.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 9c | 156.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 150.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 17c | 146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 9c | 142$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 33c | 140$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 138.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 129.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 13c | 118.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 112.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 103.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 102.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 100.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 100.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…fb64backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 90.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 89.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 86.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 83.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 81.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 37c | 77.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 25c | 76.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 31c | 76.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 76.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 16c | 73.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…7e71backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 24c | 68.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 32c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 16c | 65.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…754fbacked Yes | 23c | 64.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 61.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 60.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 32c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 59.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 34c | 58.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 35c | 58.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 34c | 58.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes | 34c | 58.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 33c | 54.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 53.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 30c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77e…aea7backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…daf3backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 48.49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.