Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d7836dbecd528a14227aa0a091bf2cf4debf709d160ccacd885b07246cb69c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 2c | 757.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes | 7c | 720.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 28c | 599.96$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 3c | 564.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 2c | 541.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 37c | 516.31$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 2c | 509.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 493.9$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 76c | 480.87$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 63c | 429.35$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 372.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 16c | 338.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 39c | 309.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.05 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 34c | 305.9$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 71c | 298.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.46 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 265.34$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 65c | 259.99$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 28c | 241.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 35c | 209.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 39c | 200.62$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 10c | 192.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 61c | 184.3$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 31c | 183.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 22c | 177.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 159.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 155$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944b…754fbacked Yes | 11c | 138.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 61c | 134.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 133.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 123$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 25c | 118.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 110.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 100.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…80a0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 62c | 94.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 23c | 93.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 35c | 89.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 88.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 76.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 20c | 71.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 68.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 68c | 67.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 64.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 61.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed No | 64c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516e…6e0ebacked Yes | 19c | 57.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 34c | 55.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 51.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 29c | 50.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc56…fb8cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 33c | 45.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 38c | 41.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 31c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 67c | 40.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9f97backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 29.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 28.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 27.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 26.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 77c | 23.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 80c | 22.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 73c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 72c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…c4cfbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.