TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,959

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd661…2750backed Yes16c2,097$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.8788028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5605834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes68c1,719$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.791,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fe8…6e25backed No23c1,378$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.45862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No8c1,334$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No22c1,223$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7951762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed No2c1,200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1972125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes25c952.07$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.7212536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No32c900.13$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.544,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No6c844.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7454234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c822.27$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.248,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes68c800.56$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.163,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No8c686.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.091,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c673.54$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.593,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes68c660.25$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.4920445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c607.47$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.016,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfeca…e166backed No41c521.63$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.687156.3%40 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes17c506$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.522,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes76c500$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.31,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24b5…d8dbbacked No19c496.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.431428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed No18c495.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3818732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c493.9$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.645,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfac…a4febacked No19c481$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.592532%8 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c474$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes66c471.53$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.774,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x340c…f130backed Yes71c448.4$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.666637.9%25 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No67c426.1$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.5438146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No41c416.49$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7179040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No38c404.69$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.391,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes75c388.97$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7423951%122 W · 117 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes9c357$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.591,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x863a…e428backed No75c321.29$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.712060%12 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d57…419cbacked No19c310.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.931442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98f8…394dbacked Yes20c307.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.464835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed No68c298.83$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4418629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6bc5…33d3backed No9c280.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.129857.1%56 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No5c272.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c260$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.075,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes71c244.86$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.011,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No18c228.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.872,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes40c223.99$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7845540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes35c221.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9915950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed Yes18c218.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2616134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No75c214$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.53,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No62c208.86$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.087,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes10c207.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.855326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+31.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No56c207$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4519071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x321e…b542backed No23c204.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.31050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8843…d4c5backed Yes72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff9…f85dbacked No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1422142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2753…e28abacked Yes76c196.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2942061.2%257 W · 163 L+19.7wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed Yes15c194.81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.838930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…da2cbacked No11c191.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.42650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes80c184.58$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1323668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes66c182.42$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7637942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes18c181.39$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No37c168.44$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3723666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x606d…89e6backed Yes72c168.34$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.625669.6%39 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed No27c167.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6727328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes60c167.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.332937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes14c162.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.617630.3%23 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed Yes10c161.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.623030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes76c155.13$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4930665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No79c145.5$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.233350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes76c140.83$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.899949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes9c137.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.819,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No17c136.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.222,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes20c132.15$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8118038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c124.63$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.831,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked No38c112.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2112351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes74c111.5$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.536,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes17c110$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.541033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed No70c110$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.415437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No80c109.73$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2892678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No33c106$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.594,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No55c105.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.262,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No50c102.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5144058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.41,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2415334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8210827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No63c99.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1316552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed Yes13c99.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.993040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4209…0ccdbacked Yes13c96.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.321127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+89.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No18c95.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9348919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes73c95.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.655570.9%39 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No43c93.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.362,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No45c93.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9316847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9129536.9%109 W · 186 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes15c90.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.441,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes15c89.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6ab…7e71backed Yes22c89.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.13728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a7…b997backed Yes15c84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5acf…b102backed No68c81.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.16633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No31c80.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.61,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes13c77.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0972624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes71c77.09$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7119947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes18c75.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.981,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.