TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,278
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,819

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,278 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef32…265cbacked No69c814.85$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes30c668.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c484.16$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb546…c186backed Yes57c429.1$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.871145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c359.8$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.6535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes60c327.88$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3418445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c252.38$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.4188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked No40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes12c247.29$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8912816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed No54c232.51$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.513026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c227.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.0940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c225$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No49c216.74$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.488856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…71fcbacked Yes59c216.5$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes43c213.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.75837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No57c211.2$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c190.27$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3839231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No69c185.65$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.112055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No53c184.82$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.173562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes31c180$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.12729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c176.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.846330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes35c171.2$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes35c171.07$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6018158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes34c160$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.216934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No63c139.97$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7913268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No51c138.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.341,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c131.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.223551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes37c124.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.455427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes42c118.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3412040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No67c110.18$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.92751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes34c106.25$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.061540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb139…29a1backed No65c103$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.69425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c102.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7732639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.428743.7%38 W · 49 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5114842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.53743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20a8…d964backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272630.8%8 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes51c99.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No59c98.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.521464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.832354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed Yes28c94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.322050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes35c92.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4718662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.611526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes51c89.46$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.624759.6%28 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba22…e546backed Yes35c85.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No69c83.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.668838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes26c83.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.866126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No45c83.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.891764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+44.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c82.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7644428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No66c81.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.775066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.731152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc1c9…e5d7backed Yes57c79.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c77$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0220065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c74.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.354932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.23351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes30c66.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.974831.3%15 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes51c63.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6113348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No61c61.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No45c60.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.67057.1%40 W · 30 L+7.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes53c57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.017248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes59c56.54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.161442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No68c54.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.558672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c53.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9117345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes30c53.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.945234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes37c51.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.11442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes33c51.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.738736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No51c50.77$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.965464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x073e…453fbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No52c48.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.352544%11 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes30c48.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.421747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes32c47.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No45c45.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No48c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.44647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes35c43.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.044436.4%16 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes53c41.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.133262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No65c41.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…66f7backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No49c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.42360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes28c39.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.185347.2%25 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes51c37.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.048236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209959.6%59 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39f3…74c9backed No66c35.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.551485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes46c33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.186346%29 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4612…d575backed No65c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.081668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes40c31.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes53c30.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.