TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,584

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes34c1,748$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.7710043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes40c911.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.191540%6 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes34c735.53$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.8639231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No46c518.16$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed No5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No66c490$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.48838.6%34 W · 54 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes41c465.16$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.619020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c449.59$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.7312055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c362.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.921854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c359.8$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No70c319.49$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No19c308.78$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed No41c291.95$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No24c247.05$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2844428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No59c236.64$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5512055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb546…c186backed Yes41c219.79$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No61c210$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.820065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211839%46 W · 72 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.214521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdd…0872backed Yes30c194.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.823026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c190$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes32c188.84$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.841145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes25c181.47$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.7616934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes40c181.24$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No72c172.72$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.99160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes30c163.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.643174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes32c160$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.211045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No8c159.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5514656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No17c154.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8316051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c147$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes32c140.15$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7218445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e6…6423backed No76c131.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004045%18 W · 22 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked No76c131.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e3…6863backed Yes33c128.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c116.66$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9623551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No15c112.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4416755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c108.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No24c104$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No66c103.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.246330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes24c100.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.397842.3%33 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7414842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c97.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8323459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c93.33$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes21c91.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+50.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes27c90.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.088736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c90.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6932639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c89.1$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0613348.1%64 W · 69 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No75c82.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.657450%37 W · 37 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes25c81.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.551643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+75.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes52c71.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4312640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes45c67.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.114979.6%39 W · 10 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No67c61.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.43351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef32…265cbacked Yes36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No40c58.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.345464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1f…106fbacked No52c55.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.354418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No64c54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3614454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No70c53.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7732354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes32c53.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6712238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes38c51.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.961442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No53c51.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54854.2%26 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c51.68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.571,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3310030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-78%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305066%33 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.312250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.27248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No65c49.88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.633562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c48.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.588236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes22c46.82$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.521353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+49.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No56c46.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c44.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0715036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No64c43.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5414351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes26c41.87$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.123262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294839.6%19 W · 29 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.45843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes39c39.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.24261.9%26 W · 16 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+28.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes30c38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No71c37.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.015855.2%32 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes36c36.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.272236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No64c36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.928672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c33.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3431635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked No61c32.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.125952.5%31 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No62c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.593158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes34c29.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4111161.3%68 W · 43 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4606…7f19backed No71c28.78$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes42c28.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.781421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes40c25.85$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.513240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2526355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No61c24.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116c…8f82backed No66c23.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No64c22.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.