World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379974593ae3f34e9aaa6d9b45cc09340070bc5eb962605e1a5fcc7507167cc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 1,676$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.79 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 1,244$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 732.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 540.93$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.29 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 396.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 12c | 277.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 20c | 254.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 16c | 242.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 13c | 239.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 211.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed Yes | 15c | 181.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 176.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 18c | 172.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 171.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 11c | 159.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 13c | 154.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 16c | 152.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 10c | 148.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 12c | 144.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 137.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 9c | 133.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 19c | 123.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 21c | 120.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b3…b220backed Yes | 21c | 114.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 102.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 13c | 91.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x947c…9a5cbacked Yes | 13c | 80.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 21c | 80.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 15c | 79.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 15c | 75.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 18c | 75.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 78c | 69$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…9a6bbacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 21c | 55.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 79c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.