TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,089
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,089 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2612…5289backed No62c522.07$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.6821844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes54c500.41$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.419337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No62c395.1$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9935258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No51c377$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4339952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed No5c358.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5970%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes42c348.08$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.385827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes30c326.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7410414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c326.2$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5940648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No15c257.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.581546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c237.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No5c237.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0514521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes36c233.4$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.55341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes24c210.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1606731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c207.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes37c203.03$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.032437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6514842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+201.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c179$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.7916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes39c175.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8918638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes71c172.55$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.551353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c165.32$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.2144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c161.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.141,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed Yes74c157.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.356100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes79c144.19$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.631457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes28c135$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8511636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No53c128.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes42c121.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.931338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No68c121$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6131152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes44c120.4$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.616738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No71c120.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3313357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c114.76$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7132748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes44c110.19$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0210043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No51c108.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.975464.8%35 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c105.91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1223459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No61c103.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3816051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16c9…17afbacked Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+76.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36b6…0400backed Yes40c99.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No52c97.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.794564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c95.14$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No62c90$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0816051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No65c88.63$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7522029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes39c87.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.661136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c85.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.411039.1%43 W · 67 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes40c82.54$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.56147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-82.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes26c81.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.718636%31 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2626632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8814467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes45c74.18$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.488856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes42c73.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9318158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes32c71.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.71464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No57c71.54$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1213748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.83345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No62c67.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2712249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No54c65.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2815954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes35c65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0510733.6%36 W · 71 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No33c63.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8439414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked No80c62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.62075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.228235.4%29 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59c9…08c5backed No60c57.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d7…608dbacked No63c57.5$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No69c57.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.635957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes22c55.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes71c54.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No60c53.75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.131250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes35c52.04$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.077020%14 W · 56 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No51c52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6914954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No58c51.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.833762.2%23 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f4…7b63backed Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes39c50.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.614932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f6…f7e6backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+91.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a91…6c2abacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes23c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c49.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.52360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No53c49.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6214445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4386…59ddbacked Yes40c49.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No71c48.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes43c47.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1517345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No62c46.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2414656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c46.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.258672.1%62 W · 24 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b2…a6dabacked Yes51c45.05$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.281952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes41c42.24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.721827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes49c40.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.831040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No59c38.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.753663.9%23 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No55c38.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9620065%130 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c38.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9815558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.189936.4%36 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes30c38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.64233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c37.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.46336.5%23 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No54c37.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.28038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.053930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes41c34.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.582646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No53c33.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.695756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No62c32.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010640.6%43 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No59c31.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.737560%45 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…b923backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.