World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea044dae379a10d255e9906078b19c23575d1fe602dbdcc301e308e5064cb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,387$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 4c | 605.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 584.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 8c | 557.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 21c | 506.25$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 482.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 345.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 21c | 316.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 310.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 245.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…d8a1backed Yes | 5c | 214.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 201.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 9c | 168.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 166.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 12c | 157.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 124.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 12c | 120.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 21c | 116.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 23c | 80.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 18c | 60.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…ff17backed Yes | 25c | 52.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 24c | 47.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 45.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 32.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.