TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,077
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,794

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,077 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes12c1,456$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.281,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes31c1,373$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.284,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d8…03eabacked Yes8c789.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4711612.1%14 W · 102 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes7c624.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.181,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes2c528.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.164,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c408.51$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.843,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No74c399.99$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10454234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bc0…82a1backed Yes5c371.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes21c337.21$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes31c323.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No74c308.32$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.091,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No80c291.37$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.554,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes16c282$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2809…1652backed Yes11c271.47$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.923040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes31c219.19$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.282,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c206.83$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.978,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes6c199.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No76c197.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3724370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No79c185.12$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.414,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a2d…d45cbacked Yes28c180.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+276.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes31c172.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.592,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c166.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.043,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No72c159.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.791,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No73c152.99$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.812,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0462…8374backed Yes9c151.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.11229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-86.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes19c142$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes33c140.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8187629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes8c128.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.438749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c123.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No67c112.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2992678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c112.12$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes11c109.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5785330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No74c105.32$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes30c104.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf216…4844backed Yes20c104.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0827246.3%126 W · 146 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No73c101.82$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.322,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes29c100.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes31c96.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.210758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No80c95.34$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.092,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No69c94.37$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c89.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No64c86.59$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes24c83.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9140741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes22c80$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea4a…39d3backed Yes21c77.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.222416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes29c77.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fef…e307backed Yes33c72.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes28c71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8833139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No73c68.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4914659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes18c65.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1257948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes16c65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.343441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes27c61.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.736237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a7…b997backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes19c59.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.462,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c59.32$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ab…7e71backed Yes29c58.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes32c58.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8870741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No72c58.22$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.292,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c55.73$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.072,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No72c55.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.621472%154 W · 60 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11c…714fbacked Yes20c55.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c55.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.279,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes18c55.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0819947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No69c53.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.648,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No73c53.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.271,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes30c52.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8180130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1293…e575backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3881…fc55backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8976…4ea7backed No73c48.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.091947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes41c48.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes28c47.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.443848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes39c45.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.791,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No71c40.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.864859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes29c39.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2948919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes27c38.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No76c38.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.072,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No62c38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d14…c13abacked Yes28c37.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5411222.3%25 W · 87 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c37.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.453,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes28c37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes31c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No72c33.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.333350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No73c30.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3117766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa4c…b17cbacked Yes41c29.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfcb…bf61backed No70c28.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512475%18 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No72c28.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.014,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c27.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.763,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c27.07$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.283,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No74c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe37a…dda4backed No74c26.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No74c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5543563.9%278 W · 157 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No77c22.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.312,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No72c21.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No70c21.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.541,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No74c20.59$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.440352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No71c20.29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9344366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.