Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10dbd2afc1c0553f04ee8b6e48df9215321f59a8e1251c935f33d2f9b287330
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,667
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,667 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,695$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 2c | 1,569$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 5c | 1,286$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 40c | 1,108$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.19 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 793.22$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 753.1$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 3c | 490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 411.84$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 42c | 336.35$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 308.31$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.73 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 266.17$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 222.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 199.32$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46e…fec5backed Yes | 41c | 164.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 148.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 145.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 141.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 140.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 41c | 140.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…6318backed Yes | 43c | 135.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes | 38c | 124$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 59c | 121.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 26c | 116.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 112$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 61c | 111.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 107.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 106$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 58c | 105$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 104.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed No | 72c | 102.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 78c | 99.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 75c | 98.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 88.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 88.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 86.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 36c | 85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 84.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 81.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 61c | 79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked No | 59c | 78.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 78.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 35c | 74.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 43c | 71.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 55c | 70.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 41c | 61.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 42c | 61.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 59.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 21c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 58.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 52.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf2…e987backed Yes | 39c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 50.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…fc55backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 60c | 46.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 59c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 43c | 43.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f0…da2bbacked No | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b62…e627backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 37.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…dda4backed Yes | 40c | 32.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4a…4f4dbacked Yes | 43c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…9a69backed Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 42c | 31.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 60c | 31.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 44c | 30.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 28.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 25.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 61c | 25.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 60c | 22.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 62c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 59c | 21.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 60c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 60c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…bb47backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.