Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5b94f7698e96e941307b62dacad2d0feb840aa8f493e6b327914370609efc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,676$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 54c | 1,472$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 49c | 1,093$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.98 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 76c | 958.23$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.44 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 25c | 775.83$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 766.44$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.36 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 753.1$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 618.64$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.91 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 526.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 24c | 390.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 10c | 369.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 31c | 330.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 4c | 322.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 8c | 315.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 306.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 287.38$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 31c | 268$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 39c | 254.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 236.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 223.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 195.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 58c | 189.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 6c | 184.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 48c | 162.97$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 155.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…d45cbacked Yes | 13c | 150.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +276.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 148.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.76 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 57c | 136.63$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 19c | 131.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 29c | 130.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 122.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 68c | 121.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 53c | 120.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 117.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 70c | 114.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 112.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 33c | 104.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 104.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…817ebacked No | 37c | 99.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 99.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 17c | 98.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 16c | 91.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 81.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 79.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 65c | 77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 74.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 72c | 69.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 21c | 67.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 65.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 61.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…1f77backed Yes | 67c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 58.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 56.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…9f3bbacked Yes | 61c | 55.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 54.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 29c | 48.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 44.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 27c | 41.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 48c | 41.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 50c | 36.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…0b6dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 76c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 65c | 22.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 68c | 18.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.