AI · resolved market
Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f7d6d6a72155a5ef01d2e809f3109aa7bf28ece77e508e30237d92f9bb579d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1181…9e90backed No | 45c | 6,560$2,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…b632backed Yes | 46c | 3,462$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 69c | 3,072$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.28 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 35c | 2,100$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 47c | 2,067$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.66 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 67c | 1,975$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d3…daffbacked No | 42c | 1,936$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,456$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.06 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 1,193$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.73 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 10c | 1,069$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 15cpaid | +479%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 57c | 782.98$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 67c | 511$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 202.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 10c | 191.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 55c | 187.8$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 33c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 128$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked Yes | 75c | 124.46$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +199.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 32c | 76.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 60c | 70.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 58c | 51.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…5a4cbacked No | 40c | 50.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 29.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…b123backed No | 41c | 26.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…e22cbacked Yes | 65c | 18.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 77000?this page
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 75000?Yes won
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 76000?Yes won
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 78000?No won
- Will Meta’s Q1 headcount be above 79000?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.