TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1181…9e90

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT3450%17 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+27.5%+$117.04
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.6
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,428Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,428.27
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$255
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$2,950
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,092Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$308
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+687.4%+$392.84
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$836Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$836.46
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,180
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,352.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$365Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$364.75
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,369Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+184.9%+$2,530.8
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,026Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$307.16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,298Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+90.6%+$2,080.51
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+112.4%+$282.53
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.1
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,920Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,919.97
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,062Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$895.25
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,341Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$341.3
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,771Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$1,144.56
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,646Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+113.6%+$1,869.82
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.98
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,092Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$838.38
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,240Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$760
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,686Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,686.12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$780
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$211.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,847Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,846.65
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,356Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$1,031.37
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$923Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$374.74
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+43.2%+$114.91
All 8 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+97.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,279.99
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,683Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,682.81
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+65.9%+$83.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paradex FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,550Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,550
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Mateusz Rebecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$430
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,485Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,485
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,339.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.