TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,550,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,012,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,550,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,579 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes2c1,082,227$17,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,096.582626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No75c490,028$365,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,910.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No13c353,684$47,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306,337.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+118.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes40c240,048$96,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,129.4312630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes10c211,685$20,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,172.514330.2%13 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No10c184,459$19,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165,418.917931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes74c143,737$105,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,897.89175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.20per pick26cpaid-76%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9bca…ca1fbacked Yes68c134,071$91,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,812.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No68c114,352$78,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,085.441540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No71c107,665$76,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,190.23663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes76c98,154$74,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,836.072157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+29.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No73c94,864$69,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,856.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes3c94,378$3,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,257.731007%7 W · 93 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c83,250$20,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,937.7944111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes1c81,962$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.54825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-67.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes72c77,329$55,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,500.44353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes13c72,885$9,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,477.76933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes38c70,920$26,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,866.21361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes13c69,338$8,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,902.737146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No79c64,075$50,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,185.632657.7%15 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked No69c62,772$43,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,372.89771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43eb…3d85backed No11c61,810$6,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,929.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+798.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No62c60,886$37,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,929.8115032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d7…ac2bbacked No77c53,465$41,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,381.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80eb…5bfcbacked No78c51,089$39,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,333.06366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes24c50,863$12,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,100.893435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+57.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No38c50,609$19,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,600.2218425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes78c50,000$39,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,999.94922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd31…e0e3backed Yes3c49,678$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3044…9ff8backed No78c49,509$38,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,114.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19f…7c8bbacked No35c47,537$16,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,899.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9afe…6d26backed Yes65c47,537$30,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,899.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes37c46,239$16,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,931.852532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes56c45,826$25,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,751.712941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes45c45,214$20,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,174.1135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc03…804cbacked Yes15c40,514$6,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,130.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No68c40,214$27,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,024.024946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes18c40,163$7,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,231.086740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7919…72b2backed Yes75c39,231$29,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,246.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed No43c37,986$16,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,772.152360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+198.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cbf…70a1backed Yes24c37,205$9,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,050.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x774d…5cdabacked Yes1c36,630$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ebd…700ebacked Yes3c36,354$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes49c34,526$16,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,921.052010%2 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-85.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa903…83d3backed Yes20c34,246$6,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,754.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes2c34,236$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.92922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a76…4f1fbacked Yes4c34,027$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,49810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e02…bfcebacked No30c33,340$9,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,391.831145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+64.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked No7c33,305$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,003.473912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No57c31,899$18,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,588.892166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes58c29,845$17,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,373.34825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed Yes15c29,700$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,514.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked No80c29,396$23,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,005.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes14c29,239$4,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.044542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c29,166$12,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,095.0769634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9533…228ebacked Yes4c28,699$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes50c28,675$14,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,380.8399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed No31c27,950$8,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,182.92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No59c27,735$16,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,384.411457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes45c27,126$12,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,137.64425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f93…e0b7backed Yes0c26,561$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked No68c26,111$17,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,328.723060%18 W · 12 L+5.3wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+92%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58b3…fe06backed Yes68c26,045$17,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,606.421421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa955…44dcbacked Yes1c26,015$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes22c25,282$5,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,444.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes19c24,230$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,488.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes71c24,215$17,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,190.587458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x845f…c13bbacked No29c24,199$7,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,085.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes22c23,724$5,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,275.582015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes15c21,862$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.6718033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0a4…41c2backed No20c21,761$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,415.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes27c21,566$5,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,764.52222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b22…c824backed No5c20,972$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,972.451100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,997.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes1c20,815$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No75c20,435$15,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,118.182213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-52.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes13c20,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6506546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Yes15c19,846$2,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.471464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x12b3…fa72backed Yes17c19,757$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb99…9ff1backed Yes2c19,734$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.192010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked No69c19,646$13,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,027.09250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No33c19,545$6,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,069.944259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes40c19,433$7,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,817.461553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes1c19,240$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.931729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13f0…25aebacked Yes0c19,134$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24f4…0f4abacked No38c19,012$7,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,819.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e44…edabbacked Yes2c18,637$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0508…a983backed Yes1c18,547$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…9ea3backed Yes3c18,530$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No61c18,174$11,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,063.0620446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes11c17,777$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,007.581127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0bf…2032backed Yes75c17,754$13,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,338.04520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe264…e7debacked Yes3c17,640$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes49c17,146$8,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,396.93560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c17,090$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8613714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes68c16,920$11,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,427.831136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+320.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f69…78e2backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes9c14,791$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.958536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes2c14,671$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.32425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-64.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes65c14,581$9,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,546.2319348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7485…d9f3backed No25c14,036$3,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,527.54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.