TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7c87…9bd4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
171
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NFL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST4353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$55,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$55,500.4
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$478.7
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$2,151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,150.71
Will Elon register the America Party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13,358Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.5%+$9,688.79
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,957Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+32.6%+$962.84
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$8,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$8,018.63
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38%+$810.82
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,595Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.2%+$887.64
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.1%+$62.3
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Australia"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+27.2%+$54.3
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,380Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30%+$413.39
Will Trump send the national guard to San Francisco by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+96.7%+$31.5
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,785Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.1%+$715
Will Dan Bongino leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$176.52
Will Matt Van Epps win TN-7 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
Will Aftyn Behn win TN-7 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$114.27
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$6,147Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$6,147.2
Will Cuomo endorse Eric Adams?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,013Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,012.54
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$83.49
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12,038Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+41.7%+$5,025.29
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,169Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$685.95
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$3,438Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,438.24
Will Elon register the America Party before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,862Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+56.5%+$1,051.64
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$450.35
Kash Patel out by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.8%+$43.4
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT3043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$132.28
Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57.14
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14,999Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+148.7%+$22,309.54
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,697Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,696.7
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,002Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+728.2%+$14,577.57
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13,967Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+149.7%+$20,905.52
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.02
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18,446Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18,446.36
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$3,260.04
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$5,552Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,551.73
Will Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$980Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+27%+$264.22
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$6,179Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,179.13
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$303
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+46.3%+$608.42
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$730Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$729.96
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11,537Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+75%+$8,650.52
Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$731.97
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,265.28
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$492.57
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$339.99
Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$630Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+64.2%+$404.86
Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$59.92
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$40.8
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,700.23
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT3050%15 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,198.79
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$7,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,499.63
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14,831Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14,831.42
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$6,541Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$6,540.55
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17,261Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.3%+$8,169.11
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$7.84
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$8,981Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+52%+$4,668.52
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,740Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+39.4%+$2,260
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,602Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+80%+$3,680.04
Iran Nuke in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,984Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$496.05
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$120
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$8,482Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$4,560.74
Israel strikes Iran by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,271Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+36.1%+$1,180.04
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,652Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+300%+$7,955.8
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,022.1
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$116.74
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$5,780Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,780.25
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,830Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$1,170
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,152.17
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$7,158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+146.5%+$10,482.82
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,951Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$773.83
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$150
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,238.48
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$5,895Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,894.7
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$29.89
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.79
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$1,239.99
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10,028Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10,028.19
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$6,430Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$6,430.25
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19,051Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19,050.93
Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$668.09
Will Eric Adams win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$4,483Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$4,483.29
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+78.6%+$220
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,361Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+154.7%+$8,290.81
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,294Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+164.9%+$5,430.81
Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$41.46
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$627.13
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$4,427Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$4,426.66
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$62,070Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+27%+$16,741.88
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$6,323Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$6,323.45
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18,923Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18,922.94
Will Trump endorse a candidate for NYC Mayor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$838Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$838
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out first?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.35
All 19 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,376Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+522.6%+$7,193.05
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$19.39
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$5,130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,129.97
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$3.91
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$7,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$7,038.32
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$920Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+84.8%+$780
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will Trump say "Marco" or "Rubio" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$396Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$396.24
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$304.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+258.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+76.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 12, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4.00 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$13.86
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% or more in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$180.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$5,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$5,197.31
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23,060Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.3%+$6,745.82
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$225
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.