TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,355,140
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$582,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,355,140 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 374 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes0c182,196$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb947…ec7bbacked Yes0c169,999$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…28e7backed Yes0c100,020$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…099bbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ed…7251backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c96,822$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes0c88,888$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-84.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c65,903$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c65,144$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.761320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac6…04f7backed Yes0c64,159$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1660%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea36…f272backed Yes0c60,009$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd36a…ecf5backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502524%6 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c42,193$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1260%0 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes0c41,461$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.461931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd2…6da1backed Yes0c35,380$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6189backed Yes0c29,425$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb0…39c1backed Yes0c28,840$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed85…4322backed Yes0c28,420$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cd…d03dbacked Yes0c28,389$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f5…2a9abacked Yes0c25,639$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cae…f779backed Yes0c24,444$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc74…fd9cbacked Yes0c23,390$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6183…9f60backed Yes0c23,060$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…4d6fbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21120%0 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…51dabacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06b…2e6dbacked Yes0c20,550$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdef8…37b1backed Yes0c20,487$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…2f05backed Yes0c20,487$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa525…53f6backed Yes0c20,315$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6481…bf3dbacked Yes0c20,011$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ea…0701backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe950…e3b8backed Yes0c19,956$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb52…fe41backed Yes0c19,860$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188c…db02backed Yes0c19,805$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e7…51a7backed Yes0c19,739$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6252…a43fbacked Yes0c19,630$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92b…c8b6backed Yes0c19,587$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4b…70ffbacked Yes0c19,450$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…12cebacked Yes0c19,285$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffe1…2307backed Yes0c19,227$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fb…21afbacked Yes0c19,115$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d92…6329backed Yes0c18,972$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6198…7ad7backed Yes0c18,940$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd80b…865cbacked Yes0c18,848$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8822…ac9fbacked Yes0c18,760$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0fa…91adbacked Yes0c18,756$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cd…b333backed Yes0c18,703$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349c…2f14backed Yes0c18,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9127…5f20backed Yes0c18,609$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x583c…8441backed Yes0c18,537$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0637…757ebacked Yes0c18,507$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a2…107ebacked Yes0c18,425$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c79…4b49backed Yes0c18,359$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd6…a828backed Yes0c18,154$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4fa…5be0backed Yes0c18,037$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1194…fae4backed Yes0c17,881$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e2f…28f3backed Yes0c17,815$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e12…5d1fbacked Yes0c17,760$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaedb…8959backed Yes0c17,750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e3…e018backed Yes0c17,626$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4873…ac9cbacked Yes0c17,380$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f56…b5dfbacked Yes0c17,350$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfe…d4a7backed Yes0c17,219$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5091…cf27backed Yes0c17,210$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7307…5d08backed Yes0c17,140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3531…436fbacked Yes0c17,140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7a…9b25backed Yes0c17,104$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedaf…d357backed Yes0c17,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7219…066dbacked Yes0c17,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2750…75e5backed Yes0c16,980$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c0…f059backed Yes0c16,944$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa226…382fbacked Yes0c16,865$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2226…96e6backed Yes0c16,710$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb90f…db5fbacked Yes0c16,698$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd742…8c6bbacked Yes0c16,662$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f5d…2957backed Yes0c16,610$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd91d…af84backed Yes0c16,583$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308b…c4a7backed Yes0c16,481$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7af…6d48backed Yes0c16,480$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6660…b14bbacked Yes0c16,364$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff0c…62afbacked Yes0c16,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8981…4fc2backed Yes0c16,298$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa52b…a42cbacked Yes0c16,290$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1606…1c6dbacked Yes0c16,220$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f4…4f26backed Yes0c16,160$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bf…8cdabacked Yes0c16,099$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…d31fbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…cdc9backed Yes0c15,837$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e5…4e2fbacked Yes0c15,770$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb26…a0f6backed Yes0c15,609$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54aa…6062backed Yes0c15,576$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f0…921dbacked Yes0c15,460$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf072…57bebacked Yes0c15,330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf363…10afbacked Yes0c15,315$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbac…83aebacked Yes0c15,171$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec6…12f2backed Yes0c15,139$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.