TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Adrienne Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,172,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$574,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,172,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c3,546,691$3,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.6990%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a3…c9b2backed Yes0c1,109,346$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c20…548abacked Yes0c998,525$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.5230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed7e…f3b7backed Yes0c793,181$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d1f…acc3backed Yes0c607,186$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e6…c1bfbacked Yes0c468,352$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f3d…f5d2backed Yes0c331,737$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c328,991$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c167,236$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.2450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260a…dbf6backed Yes0c145,049$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0570%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ba…4bd6backed Yes0c133,780$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e1…099bbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48f2…1240backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…3f15backed Yes0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ac6…04f7backed Yes0c71,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71af…c057backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb66…1cf4backed Yes0c51,200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c51,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c50,008$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.611320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5875…d064backed Yes0c49,820$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe765…4ae2backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6183…9f60backed Yes0c36,470$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e0…52e9backed Yes0c35,718$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcfb…4657backed Yes0c35,620$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c41…f647backed Yes0c33,489$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d2…3373backed Yes0c31,439$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4c…f971backed Yes0c28,760$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09df…be11backed Yes0c28,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe513…1a53backed Yes0c28,010$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b8d…f0eebacked Yes0c24,860$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c18…543cbacked Yes0c24,840$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe367…47d4backed Yes0c23,760$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854b…ec76backed Yes0c21,679$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6888…b5e8backed Yes0c21,270$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59a6…8e10backed Yes0c20,148$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819b…dd91backed Yes0c20,080$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1923…a916backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6189backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15a…5654backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c19,948$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4260%0 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x358b…7ebdbacked Yes0c19,890$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f79…0edabacked Yes0c19,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4b…70ffbacked Yes0c19,450$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…b855backed Yes0c19,199$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0361…2d31backed Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…b4ebbacked Yes0c18,900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed6a…7a28backed Yes0c18,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2696…c29dbacked Yes0c18,380$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6510…90f9backed Yes0c18,376$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0072…e4a8backed Yes0c18,346$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec72…013fbacked Yes0c17,550$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1b…e249backed Yes0c17,530$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a22…5405backed Yes0c17,415$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cdc…d366backed Yes0c17,396$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245e…84d2backed Yes0c17,020$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…d3f4backed Yes0c17,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d90…1d6ebacked Yes0c16,967$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d1…bb78backed Yes0c16,818$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880a…cd0fbacked Yes0c16,799$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf855…bce5backed Yes0c16,790$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1105…684fbacked Yes0c16,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b2…db66backed Yes0c16,699$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a9…502fbacked Yes0c16,580$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e76…da10backed Yes0c16,280$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0af4…9198backed Yes0c16,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8421…720ebacked Yes0c16,118$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49aa…b082backed Yes0c16,109$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49cd…97bfbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a6…d28cbacked Yes0c15,827$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x128a…5ea6backed Yes0c15,826$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08e5…4e2fbacked Yes0c15,770$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeac2…57cbbacked Yes0c15,760$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b4…a6f4backed Yes0c15,495$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d3…fa8bbacked Yes0c15,430$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426b…4318backed Yes0c15,390$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d43…f525backed Yes0c15,365$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaffe…8d6bbacked Yes0c15,240$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44bc…f5bdbacked Yes0c15,230$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e82…507fbacked Yes0c15,108$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29d…8defbacked Yes0c15,070$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b2…4068backed Yes0c15,020$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c9…348cbacked Yes0c14,880$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3354…2e7fbacked Yes0c14,773$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05e…bb1bbacked Yes0c14,730$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2770…bc55backed Yes0c14,708$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df9…8626backed Yes0c14,700$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd401…ed48backed Yes0c14,680$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf73…af7fbacked Yes0c14,680$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccac…28bdbacked Yes0c14,655$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c7d…a80dbacked Yes0c14,650$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f4d…f6b9backed Yes0c14,648$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b8…f5e0backed Yes0c14,638$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90eb…6251backed Yes0c14,626$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x693a…d25fbacked Yes0c14,620$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d2d…2148backed Yes0c14,619$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e1…a55dbacked Yes0c14,600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…aceebacked Yes0c14,599$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c76…5895backed Yes0c14,588$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.