TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$60,402,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,164,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,402,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 974 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb014…b3fabacked Yes0c3,297,926$7,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,095.8770%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a4…fa19backed Yes0c2,438,621$5,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,161.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…0126backed Yes0c2,137,797$10,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,069.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb540…b343backed Yes0c1,338,597$6,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,392.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Yes0c1,295,178$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a19…8179backed Yes0c1,239,999$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600b…42dcbacked Yes0c884,857$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.0820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf541…419dbacked Yes0c863,965$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89bd…0bd5backed Yes0c808,378$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,013.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c743,948$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,487.990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…3312backed Yes0c550,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c433,998$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb0…bfc1backed Yes1c433,897$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb1…b7eabacked Yes0c406,933$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes0c389,500$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.580%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1715…8db5backed Yes0c387,993$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b66…26c9backed Yes1c381,134$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeada…482cbacked Yes0c371,315$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…c4eebacked Yes0c366,270$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc550…97d6backed Yes0c349,314$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb387…27b2backed Yes1c338,549$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e1…2d1bbacked Yes1c330,882$3,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,923.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c98…24b2backed Yes0c301,227$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf7…9189backed Yes0c300,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c274,718$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0490%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes0c265,594$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7396…d207backed Yes0c252,389$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc15…3d1ebacked Yes0c251,194$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fa…e09cbacked Yes0c229,278$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb1…0b63backed Yes1c227,284$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…05cdbacked Yes0c213,250$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…56c2backed Yes1c203,019$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7489…7f27backed Yes0c193,747$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c187,873$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.9660%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cd…d1adbacked Yes1c182,370$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5112…6aefbacked Yes0c179,250$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd4…4095backed Yes0c176,768$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1caf…5c34backed Yes0c173,424$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x805a…4c2bbacked Yes0c170,598$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x188e…df00backed Yes0c169,783$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764d…f35cbacked Yes1c154,674$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Yes1c150,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a51…d415backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Yes0c150,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe707…808ebacked Yes0c146,877$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4481…d265backed Yes1c146,619$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacb…09a5backed Yes0c136,472$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31aa…c867backed Yes2c135,000$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes0c135,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes0c131,208$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.281010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c130,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3902…d83dbacked Yes0c125,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53c…67a5backed Yes0c124,353$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ff…bbbbbacked Yes0c123,667$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes0c118,771$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.21130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e2…4958backed Yes0c111,905$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26490%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd48…813fbacked Yes0c111,572$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…a8e3backed Yes0c110,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed Yes0c108,860$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.44825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11af…c7e2backed Yes0c104,682$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.43540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5573…41bdbacked Yes1c100,970$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7262…3a0bbacked Yes1c100,132$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949a…721cbacked Yes0c100,000$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.621216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+149.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes0c100,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ecd…391abacked Yes1c100,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3632…0c66backed Yes0c99,991$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd189…b261backed Yes0c99,947$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x971c…bb48backed Yes0c99,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b5…8f00backed Yes0c98,333$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ae…7b90backed Yes1c96,057$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.73714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c94…5658backed Yes1c94,467$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5093…df0abacked Yes0c90,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9d…4f39backed Yes0c87,445$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ec…1b42backed Yes0c83,516$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6b…adcebacked Yes1c83,044$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58fa…54e7backed Yes0c80,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa652…6f8fbacked Yes0c80,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes1c77,815$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-84.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6532…865abacked Yes0c71,617$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd02c…a383backed Yes0c70,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c70,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c69,762$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3680%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd73…6c8cbacked Yes0c69,600$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Yes1c69,056$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0de…8cc4backed Yes0c68,071$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.02120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba85…c019backed Yes1c67,402$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed47…6af8backed Yes0c66,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc142…8acabacked Yes0c64,720$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes1c64,578$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.131931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19de…442fbacked Yes0c63,431$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf3…2affbacked Yes0c62,670$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Yes1c60,405$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes0c60,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202030%6 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x92eb…986abacked Yes1c60,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4349…4c6fbacked Yes1c58,718$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…9eb8backed Yes0c58,630$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes0c58,433$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.