TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,322,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,236,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,322,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 816 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb0…5012backed No4c259,608$9,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,636.33110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked No28c139,900$38,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,838.713046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed No1c128,402$1,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,037.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes20c85,156$16,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,200.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed No15c74,250$11,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,176.292737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes18c53,426$9,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,748.381540%6 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No13c47,337$6,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,106.695328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c46,203$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.89551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed No70c45,550$31,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,911.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No1c45,078$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.294650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked No3c39,484$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,309.7750%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No74c37,000$27,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,433.015545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa894…5324backed Yes64c32,428$20,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,685.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab26…99b0backed Yes24c28,126$6,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,291.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes67c26,374$17,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,625.691233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c70…f9e1backed No39c26,367$10,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,157.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No76c25,067$19,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,050.931931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No29c24,497$7,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,070.543345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…4393backed Yes24c20,000$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,263.451127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Yes26c19,200$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,208250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No40c17,532$6,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,975.95251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No53c16,377$8,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,719.644245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes25c14,088$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,588.141233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Yes39c13,015$5,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,933.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c1…0cfabacked Yes20c12,630$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,129.63333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Yes21c12,000$2,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,441.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bac…9c98backed Yes42c11,434$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,675.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c11,328$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.28611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5bc…8794backed Yes27c11,130$3,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,128.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5273…d975backed Yes24c11,064$2,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,390.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49a7…5f17backed Yes15c11,000$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,309.981225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes47c10,759$5,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,673.915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No77c10,500$8,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,071.142030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c0a…c018backed Yes27c10,126$2,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,357.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes30c10,012$2,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,020.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+234.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes17c10,000$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,302.025234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed Yes18c10,000$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,229333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+88.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccc…4291backed Yes21c10,000$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,872.22425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No0c9,558$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.671747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes28c9,397$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,732.34333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes57c8,857$5,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,813.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea68…ff92backed Yes61c7,649$4,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1662…42bdbacked No1c7,110$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb6…76e0backed Yes26c6,854$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,068.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+91.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd7…7c24backed Yes24c6,395$1,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,860.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…6ea1backed Yes28c6,386$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,597.931361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+90.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed Yes75c6,304$4,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.371346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes25c6,237$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,683.45224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes18c6,072$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,971.24119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e7…55ccbacked Yes26c5,961$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.72616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6c…e358backed Yes18c5,864$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,823.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+87.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No77c5,853$4,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.813336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbd2…59f0backed Yes24c5,753$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,352.91450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1252…dec2backed Yes24c5,650$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,294.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a9…7f37backed No1c5,571$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Yes61c5,555$3,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No71c5,555$3,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9443815.8%6 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes31c5,417$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,711.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef5…5ee2backed Yes19c5,158$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.79450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes11c5,150$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,068.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c1…d9e9backed Yes40c5,048$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,015.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes21c5,038$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.37540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+63.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed No3c5,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb6…3f9ebacked Yes26c5,000$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.69540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed No78c5,000$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,889.99666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57c5…07aabacked No74c5,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,699.984242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes16c4,963$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,169.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+170.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No13c4,940$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.15850%4 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+271.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes38c4,745$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,938.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No5c4,735$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.513915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Yes21c4,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,724.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+372.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No7c4,570$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.91533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+79.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b58…4838backed Yes69c4,440$3,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,386.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes17c4,385$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,632.083844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…a440backed Yes28c4,268$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+256.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Yes16c4,200$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,528250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes19c4,194$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,398.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed No1c4,177$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.77933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes22c4,133$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.311136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42fd…4661backed Yes27c4,132$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,023.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+86.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed Yes18c4,112$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+175.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7020…fd20backed Yes21c3,944$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,124.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4220…b0fdbacked Yes23c3,893$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,993.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+116.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21fe…7b71backed Yes48c3,870$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc053…b66dbacked Yes62c3,805$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes64c3,608$2,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8107…4f39backed Yes29c3,589$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.34812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5879…10e8backed Yes28c3,544$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1940…3fa8backed Yes29c3,538$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,512.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+72.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Yes28c3,527$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,527.05540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c04…1685backed Yes19c3,499$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,842.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b2…865ebacked Yes30c3,385$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+69.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes36c3,297$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,098.371250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Yes16c3,259$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.55333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c3,217$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.1833238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9978…a49ebacked Yes28c3,186$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,295.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No67c3,147$2,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,111.172729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2476…2847backed Yes24c3,125$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+107.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72e1…7d89backed Yes17c3,124$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.61333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No76c3,121$2,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,382.582356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.