TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,479,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,266,116

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,479,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8795…7544backed Yes18c148,424$26,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,273.924650%23 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes25c97,476$24,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,442.692737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes20c70,259$13,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,737.13046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes10c63,080$6,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,462.725251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes19c54,725$10,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,413.425328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed No73c40,064$29,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,761.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes20c38,988$7,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,896.825545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes21c28,293$5,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,868.292236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+20.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes29c21,870$6,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,430.251931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes14c21,154$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,924.723030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes27c18,218$4,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes16c18,120$2,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,855.942030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3929…990fbacked Yes1c17,860$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No73c16,867$12,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,634.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ba…e67ebacked Yes16c15,007$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,360.4450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes15c14,808$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.131118.2%2 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes26c12,549$3,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,299.391233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes28c12,243$3,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,372.89850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21a9…7f37backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3151…4393backed No75c10,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5001127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes25c8,729$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-58.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed No78c7,675$5,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.741346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes26c6,698$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.982927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes19c6,594$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.85185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes17c6,270$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.095044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe51…c0d3backed No76c5,554$4,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700c…9368backed No77c5,532$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.01850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed Yes22c5,442$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes21c5,132$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.095145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes19c5,000$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.52313%3 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes25c4,540$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.692729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c4,535$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,076.6233238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes20c4,359$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.29224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes13c4,220$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.41428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes25c4,061$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.83125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes30c4,018$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20070%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x754e…028fbacked Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No75c3,946$2,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.164729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes18c3,466$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.441250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes19c3,444$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.097749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x87c7…e71dbacked No75c3,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes13c2,997$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.48180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No77c2,702$2,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.533850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4589…12adbacked No75c2,647$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes23c2,554$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.282733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed Yes28c2,538$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes13c2,528$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.521931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes20c2,500$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505263.8%1 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick22cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes18c2,500$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed Yes17c2,500$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4251553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ee…df72backed Yes25c2,238$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes23c2,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No56c2,135$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.514245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No77c2,100$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4832347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3806132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes18c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-61.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes26c1,959$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.0110740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7839…f16bbacked Yes26c1,959$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes29c1,948$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5651741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes21c1,838$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.51127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes24c1,823$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.785836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes18c1,814$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.523740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes17c1,800$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30614356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes16c1,800$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+100.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356c…9dc8backed Yes24c1,775$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes25c1,700$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-64.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb710…dcabbacked No73c1,640$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+384%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes19c1,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52a4…0294backed Yes16c1,500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…a926backed Yes20c1,472$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa77…563bbacked No75c1,433$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b58…4838backed Yes6c1,330$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb192…6d56backed No75c1,325$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe047…e509backed No76c1,297$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…12afbacked Yes18c1,282$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes23c1,200$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2721136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes21c1,184$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes24c1,170$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.754037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3327…11debacked Yes21c1,167$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.731118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes26c1,167$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4713317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No73c1,150$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes33c1,136$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.8521033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes23c1,100$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked No70c1,100$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80fa…4c85backed Yes18c1,068$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…c8dcbacked No76c1,057$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes17c1,056$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ed…00f8backed Yes1c1,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes25c1,000$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2491030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes24c1,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes21c999.37$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.025234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes18c999.06$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.512114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-66.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes20c973$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.221612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd8…c20fbacked Yes26c961.54$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8107…4f39backed Yes27c925.93$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Yes22c908.25$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.741526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.