Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e433b52ffb0befc343a528faa81e633ff0e65eed370ea8608630e8864a212e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,479,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,266,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,479,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 18c | 148,424$26,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,273.92 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 25c | 97,476$24,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,442.69 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 20c | 70,259$13,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,737.1 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 10c | 63,080$6,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,462.72 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 19c | 54,725$10,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,413.42 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed No | 73c | 40,064$29,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,761.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 20c | 38,988$7,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,896.82 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 21c | 28,293$5,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,868.29 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 29c | 21,870$6,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,430.25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 14c | 21,154$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.72 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 1.8%1 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes | 27c | 18,218$4,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,849.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 16c | 18,120$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3929…990fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,860$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed No | 73c | 16,867$12,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,634.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ba…e67ebacked Yes | 16c | 15,007$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,360.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db7…7e1fbacked Yes | 15c | 14,808$2,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,204.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 26c | 12,549$3,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,299.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 28c | 12,243$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a9…7f37backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…4393backed No | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 25c | 8,729$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,195 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7c…ef52backed No | 78c | 7,675$5,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 26c | 6,698$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.98 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 19c | 6,594$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.85 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 17c | 6,270$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.09 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe51…c0d3backed No | 76c | 5,554$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700c…9368backed No | 77c | 5,532$4,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed Yes | 22c | 5,442$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 21c | 5,132$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.09 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +103%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…e9ffbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.5 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 25c | 4,540$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 4,535$3,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.62 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 20c | 4,359$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.29 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 4,220$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,061$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 30c | 4,018$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…028fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 75c | 3,946$2,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.16 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes | 18c | 3,466$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 19c | 3,444$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.09 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…e71dbacked No | 75c | 3,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 13c | 2,997$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.48 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 77c | 2,702$2,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.53 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…12adbacked No | 75c | 2,647$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 23c | 2,554$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.28 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 28c | 2,538$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 13c | 2,528$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 25c | 2,238$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 23c | 2,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 56c | 2,135$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 77c | 2,100$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 26c | 1,959$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.01 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…f16bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,959$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 29c | 1,948$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 21c | 1,838$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 24c | 1,823$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.78 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 18c | 1,814$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.52 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 17c | 1,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…0a6cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,800$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356c…9dc8backed Yes | 24c | 1,775$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 25c | 1,700$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…dcabbacked No | 73c | 1,640$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +384%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…0294backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 20c | 1,472$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…563bbacked No | 75c | 1,433$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…4838backed Yes | 6c | 1,330$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb192…6d56backed No | 75c | 1,325$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed No | 76c | 1,297$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…12afbacked Yes | 18c | 1,282$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 23c | 1,200$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 21c | 1,184$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Yes | 24c | 1,170$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked Yes | 21c | 1,167$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 1,167$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 73c | 1,150$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 33c | 1,136$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.85 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked No | 70c | 1,100$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…4c85backed Yes | 18c | 1,068$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce08…c8dcbacked No | 76c | 1,057$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes | 17c | 1,056$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…00f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 21c | 999.37$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.02 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 999.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.51 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 20c | 973$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd8…c20fbacked Yes | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8107…4f39backed Yes | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Yes | 22c | 908.25$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani not win the 2025 New York City mayoral election?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani win by 30% or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.