TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,271,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,409,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,271,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 755 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x993c…6787backed Yes14c113,404$16,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,348.15328.3%15 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-32.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes2c113,041$2,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,798.962737%10 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes3c88,612$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.650%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b22…20debacked Yes33c81,541$27,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,142.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes47c75,216$35,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,476.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes9c69,113$6,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,219.96110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7177…ddefbacked Yes3c60,283$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.233046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-4.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes1c54,628$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-71.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c50,732$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.08551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ba…e67ebacked Yes60c50,393$30,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,461.8950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed Yes12c47,257$5,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,774.241233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b7…b85cbacked Yes2c43,554$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes1c42,348$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+24.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes4c41,041$1,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,756.23030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes2c29,961$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.8424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes45c28,049$12,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,695.865545.5%25 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3b2…2f08backed Yes15c25,552$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7f…38ffbacked Yes1c25,420$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+171%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes46c21,863$10,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,028.191931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Yes49c20,888$10,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,304.45425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked Yes2c20,361$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.53560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+34.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb704…dc1ebacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes5c18,526$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.33185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed Yes30c18,173$5,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,530.611233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cde…8833backed Yes2c17,457$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…90c7backed Yes25c15,543$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.49333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes0c15,414$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.381747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-32.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Yes80c12,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No65c11,557$7,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.2412440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…9a43backed Yes1c11,355$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b37…d5dcbacked Yes5c10,303$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2d…cac3backed Yes48c10,000$4,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,844.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+88.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e84…1ab4backed Yes5c10,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked Yes1c10,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes2c9,999$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.98110%0 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No53c9,584$5,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,527.744245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e6c…e358backed Yes52c9,559$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+87.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes1c9,401$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed No59c8,525$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,525.26825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Yes48c7,700$3,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,673.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb7…21dcbacked Yes2c7,665$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes16c7,531$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.235251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes1c7,500$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes1c7,440$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a7e…f25fbacked Yes45c7,417$3,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,344.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes13c7,408$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.521926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-61.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce68…6ed6backed Yes1c7,045$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97c1…d9e9backed Yes67c6,797$4,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,537.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes27c6,000$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes10c5,910$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.611338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6960…5f1bbacked Yes1c5,831$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa500…9528backed Yes0c5,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes48c5,454$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,603.993225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked Yes2c5,167$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Yes47c5,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c4,971$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.11611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No50c4,939$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,445.541850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes51c4,908$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f61…bb12backed Yes1c4,867$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Yes2c4,804$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes45c4,605$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e88…44a2backed Yes45c4,463$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…52acbacked Yes0c4,454$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x421c…0900backed Yes7c4,375$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No52c4,187$2,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.3133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes40c4,155$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.221250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes44c4,150$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes53c4,142$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,192.431020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ca3…259ebacked Yes3c4,026$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873b…166cbacked Yes56c4,000$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.951050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea68…ff92backed Yes57c3,736$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,139.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes1c3,694$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…ba80backed Yes1c3,676$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-79%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x285c…5955backed Yes54c3,651$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,955.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed No55c3,620$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes73c3,600$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…fffbbacked Yes1c3,516$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e7…55ccbacked Yes19c3,505$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.17616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bd…76babacked Yes1c3,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191250%6 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+89.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes44c3,500$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+80.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db5…4f57backed Yes48c3,394$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,631.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf17…aae7backed Yes1c3,357$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes43c3,290$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,421.133125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5879…10e8backed Yes6c3,279$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-40.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes2c3,245$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.611637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x405f…45cebacked Yes46c3,245$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.45540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes46c3,235$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+188%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes10c3,200$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+79.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes47c3,166$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes46c3,152$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.566431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc053…b66dbacked Yes66c3,127$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,053.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a9…7f37backed Yes1c3,125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…408dbacked Yes2c3,085$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…00f8backed Yes4c3,059$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.95922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1d…3ee4backed Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes50c3,000$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…283fbacked Yes19c2,946$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.61425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes11c2,902$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-49.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.