TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc50…df9b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
206
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLBlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT4360.5%26 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)backed Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$72
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)backed San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$63.16
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)backed St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)backed Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$124
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)backed Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)backed Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)backed Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.2
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)backed Minnesota Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)backed Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$144
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)backed Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)backed Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$64
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)backed Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$12.4
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)backed Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT3225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.87
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$1,775.09
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$289.75
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,843Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$1,843.37
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$298.4
Will Mikie Sherrill win by less than 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,026Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$2,025.91
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,604Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$2,603.99
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$220.81
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,238Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,238.18
Will Abigail Spanberger win by less than 6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$152.43
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 6-9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$673.77
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$6,712Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$6,711.62
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14,539Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14,539.03
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12,433Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12,433.02
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$566
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$190
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,726Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,725.82
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$557Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+43.6%+$242.91
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,189.91
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$38.4
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+72.1%+$486.44
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+116%+$113.01
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$54.17
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$875Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$874.89
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT2360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$270.9
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,910
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+150%+$135.38
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$437.05
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+38.6%+$194.29
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$147.56
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$110
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$720
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,320Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+203%+$2,680
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$573Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$573.17
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$703Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$703.5
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+127.5%+$116.78
Will Călin Georgescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$529Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$528.92
Will George Simion win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$40.52
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$178.5
Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$58
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,544Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,543.54
Will the Green Party win 1 seat in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+146.5%+$508.1
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$430Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+62.8%+$270
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+129.7%+$343.11
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$958.66
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST2343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,601Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+36.9%+$590.55
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$44.52
Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.68
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$206.66
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$104.44
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$164.65
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$245.93
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$90.54
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$300.48
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$284.4
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.36
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$835Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$835.38
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$281.7
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$958Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+276.7%+$2,651.65
Will Kash Patel be Trump's FBI director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,779Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+43%+$1,194.05
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,498Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+45.2%+$2,034.98
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,761Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+65.3%+$3,108.61
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,043Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+121.9%+$1,271.51
Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$124.85
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$8,871Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+41.9%+$3,713.95
Will Trump formally nominate Tulsi Gabbard to the cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,155Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+33.8%+$729.38
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+439.8%+$1,221.56
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$188.43
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Purdue advance to the Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.34
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.56
Will Iowa State advance to the Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.5
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will Houston advance to the Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+846.3%+$540.75
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,884Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,883.91
March Madness: Team from the ACC to win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.96
Florida vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$205
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.59
Michigan State vs. Auburnbacked Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Will Duke make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$230
Will Texas Tech make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Will Kentucky make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.79
Will Iowa State win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Iowa State make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$127.08
Will Louisville win the South region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will Louisville make the 2025 Final Four?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1850%9 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+39.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$290
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$185
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+122.2%+$275
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+212.5%+$340
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+455.6%+$1,640
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$205.5
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10.42
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10.46
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$36.36
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+65.3%+$158
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+118.6%+$151.08
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$105
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+150%+$733.83
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+400%+$892.75
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$357Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+54.1%+$193.2
All 18 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$103.6
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+142.8%+$32.71
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$98.7
Spread: Chargers (-4.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
Spread: Chargers (-3.5)backed Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
Will JuJu Smith-Schuster record 2 or more receptions in Super Bowl LIX?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+81.8%+$45
Will Jalen Hurts win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+354.5%+$390
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+109.2%+$521.07
Will the Eagles beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+108.3%+$462.8
Will Travis Kelce record 64 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+85.2%+$92
Will the Chiefs score 26 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+85.2%+$106.81
Will Patrick Mahomes record 2 or more Passing TDs in Super Bowl LIX?backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Will the Eagles score 25 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+112.8%+$106
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-82.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+76%+$522
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$16.79
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$165
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.08
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$520
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$269.87
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$45
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Jacksonville State (-1.5)backed UTEP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-10.5)backed Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+85.3%+$85.26
Will Texas win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 3 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+900%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+900%+$900
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Winter Games 2026: Lindsey Vonn to medal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$117.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.