World Politics · resolved market
Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x510e4e26f501eb687ced8a5f8357002119d6504d081a6edae1ab9ddf0dea5ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $612,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $602,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb167…3a2fbacked No | 41c | 71,489$29,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,310.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa4…1f7fbacked Yes | 59c | 71,489$42,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,310.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…c895backed No | 36c | 57,622$20,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,743.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6818…72d1backed Yes | 64c | 57,622$36,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,743.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 41c | 30,875$12,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,513.38 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 62c | 29,888$18,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,465.3 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 64c | 26,639$17,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,633.43 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x257f…b3b4backed Yes | 54c | 26,598$14,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,235.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…6b40backed No | 46c | 26,598$12,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,235.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 34c | 21,313$7,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,197.03 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac8…4916backed Yes | 59c | 20,633$12,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,459.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…41d9backed No | 41c | 20,633$8,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,459.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 66c | 17,545$11,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,936.98 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 63c | 16,790$10,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,233.82 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 38c | 13,244$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.9 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 62c | 11,761$7,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,524.91 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed No | 0c | 10,607$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 38c | 10,284$3,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,880.06 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 64c | 8,241$5,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,001.33 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 38c | 8,000$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.99 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 37c | 7,722$2,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.78 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 7,717$4,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.74 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked No | 37c | 6,798$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 64c | 6,278$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.47 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 58c | 5,670$3,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.18 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 40c | 4,447$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.56 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 68c | 4,285$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 31c | 3,728$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.67 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 62c | 3,167$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.07 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 62c | 2,792$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.07 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…4638backed No | 39c | 2,543$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 32c | 2,369$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.11 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed No | 15c | 2,306$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 38c | 2,200$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 33c | 2,114$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.42 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Yes | 72c | 1,994$1,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 10c | 1,940$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…5a23backed No | 36c | 1,819$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 36c | 1,667$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 35c | 1,591$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.36 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…970bbacked No | 37c | 1,540$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 64c | 1,453$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…eab8backed No | 38c | 1,440$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 32c | 1,199$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.67 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 67c | 1,000$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked Yes | 75c | 944.19$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked No | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 36c | 919.12$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.15 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 25c | 799.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 36c | 775$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 35c | 737$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.39 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 34c | 732.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.53 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 66c | 715$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 61c | 700$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 68c | 656.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 38c | 653$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 33c | 650$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 49c | 605.19$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.49 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked No | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 78c | 550$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes | 70c | 465.38$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.38 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 34c | 419$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 38c | 408.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 47c | 376.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 34c | 375$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e23…e199backed No | 38c | 340$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…cd63backed No | 33c | 305$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…6a88backed No | 36c | 276$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 22c | 266.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…19b9backed No | 36c | 262.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 65c | 262.49$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed0…b1b8backed No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…b326backed Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed No | 33c | 248.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…5924backed Yes | 45c | 239$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 53c | 235.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.69 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…ea75backed Yes | 70c | 229.8$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…a6c4backed Yes | 66c | 227.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 64c | 219.9$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed No | 34c | 212.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 25c | 209.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed1…cc85backed Yes | 52c | 193.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 187.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 181.38$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 78c | 180.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…64a5backed Yes | 66c | 174.39$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…6bc7backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 73c | 152.54$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…0d38backed Yes | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4e…828ebacked No | 36c | 148.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will NDP win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.