TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$612,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$602,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb167…3a2fbacked No41c71,489$29,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,310.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffa4…1f7fbacked Yes59c71,489$42,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,310.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+93.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd189…c895backed No36c57,622$20,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,743.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6818…72d1backed Yes64c57,622$36,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,743.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No41c30,875$12,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,513.3816744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes62c29,888$18,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,465.311247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes64c26,639$17,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,633.4311853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257f…b3b4backed Yes54c26,598$14,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,235.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…6b40backed No46c26,598$12,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,235.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No34c21,313$7,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,197.0325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfac8…4916backed Yes59c20,633$12,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,459.533100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+117.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0f6…41d9backed No41c20,633$8,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,459.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+163.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes66c17,545$11,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,936.986642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes63c16,790$10,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,233.8248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No38c13,244$4,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,994.92722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes62c11,761$7,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,524.918025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c10,607$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.614121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No38c10,284$3,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,880.065664.3%36 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes64c8,241$5,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.337740.3%31 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No38c8,000$3,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,039.992441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No37c7,722$2,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,866.7843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes58c7,717$4,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,241.7410233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x047b…ef6fbacked No37c6,798$2,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,535.41650%8 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+90.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes64c6,278$4,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.473333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes58c5,670$3,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.1810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No40c4,447$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.5612129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes68c4,285$2,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No31c3,728$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.677345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes62c3,167$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.0757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes62c2,792$1,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.0727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…4638backed No39c2,543$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick36cpaid-79.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No32c2,369$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.1111428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…a8c1backed No15c2,306$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.79837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No38c2,200$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8452931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No33c2,114$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.427650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes72c1,994$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.021553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No10c1,940$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7838023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…5a23backed No36c1,819$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No36c1,667$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6007625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No35c1,591$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.366538.5%25 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…970bbacked No37c1,540$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.541127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes64c1,453$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.354045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bfe…eab8backed No38c1,440$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No32c1,199$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.675420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes67c1,000$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32910037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3809053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d2c…193abacked Yes75c944.19$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.731442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked No32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003312.1%4 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No36c919.12$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.157038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes61c800$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3121154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+140%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No25c799.99$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1995614.3%8 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No36c775$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27824736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No35c737$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3910331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No34c732.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.5314033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes66c715$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.819623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes61c700$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+34.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd17e…0868backed Yes68c656.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.212532%8 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No38c653$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.142828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No33c650$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2125341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No49c605.19$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4937117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked No34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042060%12 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes58c600$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.512630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes78c550$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11920034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bc…33c6backed Yes70c465.38$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.384052.5%21 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No34c419$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.461225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No38c408.06$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.98035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+76.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No47c376.84$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5944921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No34c375$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.53930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e23…e199backed No38c340$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No33c305$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd0…8bc2backed Yes55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352035%7 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed No36c276$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.363053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No22c266.47$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.613525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b5…19b9backed No36c262.6$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.91650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes65c262.49$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.271838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No34c250$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8514834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfed0…b1b8backed No41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…b326backed Yes59c250$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff44…6c33backed No33c248.82$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.982420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa278…5924backed Yes45c239$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.45650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes53c235.19$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.695532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3564…ea75backed Yes70c229.8$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802c…a6c4backed Yes66c227.68$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d37…a680backed Yes64c219.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.95945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc430…3c45backed No34c212.26$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No25c209.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.569659.4%57 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd9e…3723backed Yes62c193.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.552070%14 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ed1…cc85backed Yes52c193.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.162035%7 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c187.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.681,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes67c181.38$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4920051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes78c180.05$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.643250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x488c…64a5backed Yes66c174.39$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.29580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Yes69c170$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.71216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-70.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x830a…6bc7backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes61c165$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.357238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes73c152.54$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1136742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a8…0d38backed Yes63c150$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4e…828ebacked No36c148.83$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.58520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.