World Politics · resolved market
Will NDP win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cf8a7dfeca7690364f75f6c6fa7656492640089d18e92d496a0f412462d897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 31c | 7,050$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.96 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 3,589$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 3,507$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.97 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 2,575$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.75 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 70c | 2,059$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…1dc2backed Yes | 30c | 995.01$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 29c | 927$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.83 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 33c | 919.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 31c | 727$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.49 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 645$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 29c | 433.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 64c | 379.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.8 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 66c | 372.74$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 33c | 313.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8264…845abacked Yes | 37c | 307.86$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 269.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.7 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…193abacked No | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 259.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f71…49f2backed No | 70c | 251$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 243$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 32c | 231.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 69c | 160.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 29c | 160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 33c | 152.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 34c | 148.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 67c | 117$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…6c33backed Yes | 28c | 90.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 32c | 65.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…a66bbacked Yes | 24c | 45.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes | 33c | 45.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 31c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…44a4backed No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…a3b4backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NDP win between 10 and 15 seats in the next Canadian Election?this page
- Will NDP win 31 or more seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win 9 or less seats in the next Canadian Election?Yes won
- Will NDP win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 21 and 25 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
- Will NDP win between 26 and 30 seats in the next Canadian Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.