TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$805,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$879,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $805,284 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 419 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes33c64,824$21,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,405.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes28c46,112$12,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,763.423818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No64c29,123$18,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,521.9510055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked No66c26,425$17,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,005.153020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No66c19,695$13,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,670.2115646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes15c18,389$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,760.113030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes6c17,248$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.167420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No72c12,345$8,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.563935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes16c12,178$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-75.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No49c12,000$5,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,101.4937844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No79c11,878$9,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,459.12245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes30c10,980$3,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,328.254522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No56c10,007$5,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,392.5437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes27c9,860$2,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,635.710324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes40c8,959$3,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,565.227331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No60c8,833$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.051060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes34c8,017$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.561952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c7,528$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.312847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes27c6,913$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.6611541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes38c6,631$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed No75c6,500$4,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.953228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked Yes16c6,239$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No78c5,700$4,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.0616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes28c5,475$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.2117225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes27c5,441$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.3313029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes30c5,379$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.865916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes29c5,253$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.137441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes5c5,241$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.17368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Yes15c5,208$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.621520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No66c5,000$3,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,694.63542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes31c4,764$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,462.7610632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes21c4,282$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.234814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed No73c4,162$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.835147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes34c4,000$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3705756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes34c3,962$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.277728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff79…af9bbacked No65c3,842$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No27c3,704$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.716535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes32c3,690$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1973844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No79c3,428$2,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.3135519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes19c3,396$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.856740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes30c3,370$1,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.431118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No67c3,258$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.3111848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5923…a3f7backed No66c3,224$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.421450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes14c2,850$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4021216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes34c2,732$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.4612649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes31c2,704$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.382343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes15c2,701$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.553438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes5c2,550$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1319810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Yes24c2,386$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.172133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x586f…6540backed Yes24c2,285$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No71c2,200$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.1711950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No57c2,120$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9188547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes43c2,096$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.579533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes31c1,914$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.7799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xabb1…8b46backed No75c1,875$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No42c1,598$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.973859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No73c1,531$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.3412531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes33c1,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed No48c1,507$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.798737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes23c1,500$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked No62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No69c1,447$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.718057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No73c1,434$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.272642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes35c1,434$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes33c1,404$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.043721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes6c1,274$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319e…ab6cbacked Yes1c1,256$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No71c1,242$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.493066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes28c1,240$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.775137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No74c1,199$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.8617355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No72c1,089$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.282665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed Yes37c1,082$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.631643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes31c1,054$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.5518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes32c1,050$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.615437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes20c1,025$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.756546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3508444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502412.5%3 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…cd08backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e4…2420backed Yes39c943.9$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3722445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes18c890.3$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.117227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes7c882$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.924934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No70c875.64$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.274146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fb…959fbacked Yes21c792$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes36c779.46$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No63c771.97$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.1721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c761.5$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.771,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes33c739.99$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.64637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes20c721$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.517146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes27c713.07$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No73c710.44$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.547639.5%30 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes36c704.04$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2555230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed Yes14c700.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.091421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed No60c700$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2782437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes33c699.58$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.19142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76f1…46d6backed Yes34c694$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.311330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c688.81$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7756733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No66c679.09$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.368646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.