Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7ec0c2fc4ada9e3e0703b20ff9f610abae734e65d90f32378e26c4c9f826713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,889,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,229,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,889,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e3e…4a75backed Yes | 19c | 137,153$26,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,723.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ed84backed Yes | 19c | 107,361$20,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,143.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 17c | 51,979$8,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,897.96 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 3c | 47,000$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.63 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 79c | 38,161$30,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,155.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 20c | 37,215$7,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,558 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 17c | 33,008$5,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f2fcbacked Yes | 14c | 26,272$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 10c | 25,200$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 18c | 24,579$4,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,414.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 75c | 23,492$17,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,906.36 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…85aabacked No | 78c | 23,099$17,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,142.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 11c | 17,298$1,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.35 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 15c | 16,998$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.22 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 18c | 16,311$2,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,893.51 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 18c | 13,422$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.74 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 18c | 13,198$2,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.15 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…e319backed Yes | 27c | 12,787$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…e789backed Yes | 16c | 12,541$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 3c | 11,367$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.94 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 20c | 11,220$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 19c | 9,652$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,813.31 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 9c | 9,554$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…ffc8backed Yes | 13c | 9,395$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 79c | 9,187$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.51 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 79c | 8,705$6,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.91 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 8,650$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 9c | 8,333$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.42 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked No | 75c | 7,585$5,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 17c | 7,377$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.03 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 7,169$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.8 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 7c | 7,157$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…8a63backed Yes | 15c | 7,083$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 6,759$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.58 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 18c | 6,617$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 18c | 6,452$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.49 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed No | 77c | 6,375$4,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 20c | 6,118$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 11c | 5,888$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.59 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes | 13c | 5,866$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 28c | 5,803$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 78c | 5,672$4,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.08 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,606$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 13c | 5,319$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 20c | 5,219$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf0…0540backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…3c20backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked Yes | 18c | 4,451$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 4,220$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.62 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…12bdbacked Yes | 11c | 4,101$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,904$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 3,857$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.66 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 11c | 3,773$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.38 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 3,448$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 10c | 3,200$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 79c | 3,110$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.76 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,033$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.65 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed Yes | 12c | 3,028$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,839$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 2,761$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.22 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 15c | 2,750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 16c | 2,603$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 79c | 2,567$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 20c | 2,504$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 20c | 2,278$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.61 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,213$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,161$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.27 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 13c | 2,143$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.42 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…4cc1backed No | 80c | 2,007$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.34 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 13c | 1,859$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.57 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 5c | 1,834$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 77c | 1,807$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.7 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,752$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.97 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 18c | 1,661$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 1,634$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.23 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,614$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,600$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…738fbacked No | 79c | 1,560$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.22 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 1,548$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.29 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,495$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 20c | 1,483$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.57 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 12c | 1,449$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 17c | 1,439$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,435$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…fe40backed Yes | 14c | 1,434$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 73c | 1,407$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.84 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…91bbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,385$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13c…bf9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,337$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,308$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.14 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…e786backed Yes | 16c | 1,298$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.