Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e0208a9e5014ff507d16a359db466bd98c0414be72982835001eee2fd8f5ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,087,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,765,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,087,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,080 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5976…ddfebacked No | 29c | 456,903$134,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134,217.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked Yes | 73c | 252,903$184,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,382.27 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 26c | 194,067$51,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,003.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…af9bbacked No | 27c | 185,730$50,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,992.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…bf77backed Yes | 76c | 157,816$120,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,273.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 74c | 144,587$106,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,034.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes | 76c | 142,850$108,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,016.83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 25c | 139,893$34,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,498 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes | 77c | 130,463$99,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,570.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 29c | 125,501$36,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,091.24 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 25c | 116,348$28,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,816 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…fa36backed No | 26c | 112,895$29,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,328.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…28b4backed Yes | 73c | 105,769$77,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,639.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…37afbacked Yes | 79c | 78,274$61,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,300.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 75c | 72,000$54,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,782.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4625…cf1ebacked No | 28c | 65,340$18,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,541.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 77c | 65,046$50,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,812.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 78c | 63,425$49,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,978.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 28c | 60,779$17,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,297.31 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…170cbacked Yes | 79c | 60,399$47,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,762.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…73cebacked No | 32c | 59,646$19,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,204.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f1…84d6backed Yes | 73c | 57,257$42,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,207.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 67c | 55,724$37,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,390.77 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…f9b4backed No | 0c | 55,642$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 30c | 55,561$16,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,518.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…ff82backed Yes | 75c | 55,270$41,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,847.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd0…58dabacked Yes | 69c | 49,955$34,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,452.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb02…ed07backed No | 20c | 49,810$9,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,962.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…de17backed Yes | 73c | 47,564$34,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,830.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd86…36b3backed No | 24c | 45,908$11,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,241.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 9c | 44,183$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.88 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 16c | 44,111$6,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,938.46 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 20c | 43,296$8,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,819.43 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 15c | 41,567$6,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,163.09 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…71b8backed No | 34c | 41,244$13,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,828.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 74c | 39,941$29,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,442.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 33c | 39,724$13,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,059.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 7c | 39,314$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.91 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 22c | 37,511$8,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,186.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 33c | 34,716$11,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,629.83 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 29c | 34,664$9,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,957.66 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…2da3backed No | 26c | 33,755$8,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,787.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…6d98backed No | 7c | 33,372$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,286.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 24c | 32,703$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800.22 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1976…35c6backed No | 32c | 31,226$9,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,887 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…fc0ebacked No | 28c | 30,857$8,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,687.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 67c | 30,149$20,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,949.25 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 20c | 28,388$5,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,712.99 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…e335backed Yes | 75c | 28,309$21,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,051.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…eb2dbacked No | 4c | 27,876$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…8118backed No | 24c | 27,724$6,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,695.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 25c | 27,484$6,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,785.16 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 71c | 27,399$19,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,828.59 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes | 74c | 26,726$19,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,906.14 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fd…8ae6backed No | 27c | 26,661$7,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,230.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 68c | 26,596$18,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,509.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…85aabacked No | 27c | 26,481$7,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 26c | 26,187$6,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,829.96 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked No | 12c | 26,057$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.81 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Yes | 70c | 25,094$17,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,581.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 21c | 24,681$5,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,274.34 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked No | 5c | 24,264$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 0c | 24,002$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 73c | 23,756$17,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,429.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 17c | 23,661$4,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.96 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9421…c375backed No | 26c | 23,634$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes | 74c | 23,325$17,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,009.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d37…f5c9backed No | 8c | 23,234$1,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 22c | 22,694$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,069.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 77c | 22,381$17,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,246.9 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 24c | 22,380$5,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 74c | 22,172$16,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,685.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 31c | 21,694$6,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,647.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad61…a2fbbacked Yes | 66c | 21,669$14,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,436.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 22c | 21,150$4,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,646.53 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…ca5dbacked Yes | 76c | 20,943$15,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,069.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 26c | 20,404$5,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.43 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Yes | 79c | 20,291$16,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,270.8 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4999…5fcebacked No | 6c | 20,043$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed No | 28c | 20,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…1b52backed Yes | 70c | 20,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 33c | 19,968$6,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,532.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efe…8b8ebacked No | 20c | 19,876$3,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 22c | 19,655$4,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,409.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 32c | 18,995$5,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,997.42 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 19c | 18,855$3,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,643.57 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 30c | 18,713$5,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,679.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…b77cbacked No | 9c | 18,677$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 30c | 17,893$5,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,343.99 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 79c | 17,649$14,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked No | 18c | 17,091$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,063.16 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…c3fdbacked No | 7c | 17,045$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 15c | 16,418$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,536.1 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc822…c185backed No | 3c | 16,376$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.88 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 68c | 16,239$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,239.19 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa84…cc4cbacked No | 19c | 15,958$3,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 26c | 15,843$4,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,162.59 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ef1backed Yes | 72c | 15,819$11,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 73c | 15,660$11,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,264.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes | 73c | 15,540$11,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,194.09 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.