TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,087,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,765,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,087,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,080 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5976…ddfebacked No29c456,903$134,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134,217.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked Yes73c252,903$184,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,382.27785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No26c194,067$51,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,003.371145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…af9bbacked No27c185,730$50,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,992.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5c…bf77backed Yes76c157,816$120,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,273.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes74c144,587$106,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,034.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+91.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3ba…9e00backed Yes76c142,850$108,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,016.83650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No25c139,893$34,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,49841238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b7e…c6afbacked Yes77c130,463$99,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,570.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No29c125,501$36,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,091.247227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No25c116,348$28,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,81610055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fc…fa36backed No26c112,895$29,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,328.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Yes73c105,769$77,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,639.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875c…37afbacked Yes79c78,274$61,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,300.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes75c72,000$54,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,782.051540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4625…cf1ebacked No28c65,340$18,542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,541.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes77c65,046$50,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,812.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes78c63,425$49,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,978.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No28c60,779$17,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,297.318143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa25b…170cbacked Yes79c60,399$47,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,762.49475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c8…73cebacked No32c59,646$19,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,204.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75f1…84d6backed Yes73c57,257$42,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,207.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes67c55,724$37,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,390.778739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb24…f9b4backed No0c55,642$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No30c55,561$16,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,518.43542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2262…ff82backed Yes75c55,270$41,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,847.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd0…58dabacked Yes69c49,955$34,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,452.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb02…ed07backed No20c49,810$9,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,962.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…de17backed Yes73c47,564$34,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,830.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…36b3backed No24c45,908$11,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,241.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No9c44,183$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,158.887146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No16c44,111$6,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,938.466145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No20c43,296$8,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.4315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked No15c41,567$6,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,163.092642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f1…71b8backed No34c41,244$13,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,828.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ca…7229backed Yes74c39,941$29,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,442.781560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No33c39,724$13,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,059.131931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c39,314$2,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.913859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed No22c37,511$8,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,186.551553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No33c34,716$11,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,629.832516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No29c34,664$9,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,957.6617225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed No26c33,755$8,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,787.78728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc4a…6d98backed No7c33,372$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No24c32,703$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,800.2211336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1976…35c6backed No32c31,226$9,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,88710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d8…fc0ebacked No28c30,857$8,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,687.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes67c30,149$20,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,949.255733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No20c28,388$5,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,712.998453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4f…e335backed Yes75c28,309$21,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,051.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed22…eb2dbacked No4c27,876$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x538e…8118backed No24c27,724$6,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,695.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No25c27,484$6,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,785.1635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked Yes71c27,399$19,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,828.593020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes74c26,726$19,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,906.143228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fd…8ae6backed No27c26,661$7,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,230.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes68c26,596$18,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,509.481435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e91…85aabacked No27c26,481$7,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,100450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No26c26,187$6,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,829.9610632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked No12c26,057$3,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.811811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Yes70c25,094$17,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,581.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed No21c24,681$5,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,274.341225%3 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick42cpaid+89.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked No5c24,264$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.24119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No0c24,002$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.983751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Yes73c23,756$17,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,429.44666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No17c23,661$4,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.9615124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9421…c375backed No26c23,634$6,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,071.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4c9…6ef7backed Yes74c23,325$17,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,009.96560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d37…f5c9backed No8c23,234$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,94110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No22c22,694$5,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,069.83540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes77c22,381$17,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,246.93441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed No24c22,380$5,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.781030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed Yes74c22,172$16,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,685.231216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed No31c21,694$6,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,647.462536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xad61…a2fbbacked Yes66c21,669$14,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,436.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fc…4e30backed No22c21,150$4,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,646.532520%5 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ee…ca5dbacked Yes76c20,943$15,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,069.61450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No26c20,404$5,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,365.4320446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes79c20,291$16,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,270.84833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4999…5fcebacked No6c20,043$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-43.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3fec…2b67backed No28c20,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5c…1b52backed Yes70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No33c19,968$6,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,532.093132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6efe…8b8ebacked No20c19,876$3,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,937.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No22c19,655$4,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,409.54729.8%14 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No32c18,995$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.422245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No19c18,855$3,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,643.574814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed No30c18,713$5,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,679.641450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf00e…b77cbacked No9c18,677$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No30c17,893$5,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,343.993953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes79c17,649$14,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,629.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked No18c17,091$3,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,063.163129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0355…c3fdbacked No7c17,045$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No15c16,418$2,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.15641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No3c16,376$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.881968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes68c16,239$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,239.192185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No19c15,958$3,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.371060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No26c15,843$4,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,162.5917355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb777…3ef1backed Yes72c15,819$11,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed Yes73c15,660$11,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,264.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+182.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes73c15,540$11,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,194.091631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.