Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc64d3236e385c33bd6c4461f7d1ade64925ed3671401ce6d5a1b36912de228a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,980$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,504$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…88e2backed Yes | 5c | 1,731$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 1,436$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 5c | 1,070$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 952.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 952.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 3c | 912.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…e343backed Yes | 7c | 896.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 791.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 3c | 730.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 670.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 4c | 649.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…ddccbacked Yes | 3c | 606.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…68e2backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…3ce8backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.