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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$993,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$930,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $993,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No79c45,049$35,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,535.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes22c34,124$7,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,375.227146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes20c31,032$6,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,068.423818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc109…1ad2backed Yes29c30,071$8,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,825.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick33cpaid+165.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes42c29,007$12,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,125.541154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No67c25,165$16,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,279.1110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No72c23,466$16,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,590.5237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes20c21,947$4,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,324.2323639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes18c21,928$4,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,007.135641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No65c20,941$13,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,325.513132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed No68c19,868$13,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,443.461540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff79…af9bbacked No77c17,608$13,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,051.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes24c16,791$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,996.241735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes30c15,131$4,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,488.535916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No77c12,287$9,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.038453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes24c11,255$2,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7522326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes17c10,342$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,744.243859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes7c9,496$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.662847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes20c8,007$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.567331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No76c7,673$5,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.1415646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes30c7,588$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.1110749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes10c7,577$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.48825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes9c7,521$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.277041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No80c7,448$5,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.437227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes5c7,327$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No75c6,920$5,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.151145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes17c6,793$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.7411848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No75c6,716$5,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.578547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9419…5865backed Yes17c6,323$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845d…620fbacked Yes34c5,876$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes11c5,697$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.234814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked No75c5,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.712185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes21c5,223$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.3710324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked No76c5,000$3,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2252245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Yes13c5,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes2c4,898$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.541338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes23c4,742$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.845437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No76c4,632$3,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.773030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes13c4,626$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.2137844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x593c…72debacked Yes19c4,299$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes25c4,271$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.6810632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…776bbacked No77c4,237$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.481330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-57.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes24c4,202$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.3613029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes16c4,179$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.4132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98c…acb2backed Yes10c4,002$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes4c4,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No70c3,864$2,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.16246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes33c3,617$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.9112630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes22c3,547$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes26c3,468$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.744522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes27c3,438$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.8817544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No74c3,377$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8865756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf58…259dbacked Yes6c3,153$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes24c3,010$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.381747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c3,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1532623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes14c3,000$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4233727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes23c2,735$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+145.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes22c2,734$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.997441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No65c2,417$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.997728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes24c2,173$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.1312649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67a4…7069backed Yes42c2,014$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.021861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes25c2,007$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.0714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c2,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.483514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes20c1,992$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.0411541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6615…665dbacked Yes12c1,897$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5861…66efbacked Yes28c1,751$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.59742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c1,653$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.282400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96fc…457abacked Yes8c1,561$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-85.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes12c1,467$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes25c1,421$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.9717021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes14c1,415$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.3728320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1748…890cbacked Yes44c1,368$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes16c1,366$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7518033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked No73c1,323$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.044156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes17c1,300$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…0020backed Yes8c1,290$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+51.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfe…5087backed Yes7c1,236$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.27911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c1,181$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe9…4fd9backed No68c1,168$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.093420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes28c1,163$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.35038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes8c1,113$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.939829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes31c1,102$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.263721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc411…2a64backed Yes21c1,000$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091520%3 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-47.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No69c1,000$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3118219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No70c990$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.688057.5%46 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No78c948.79$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.214146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb544…0977backed Yes11c906.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No78c876.1$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.6210056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No79c866$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.183658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1714…0986backed Yes14c811.01$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.911030%3 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No71c795.77$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.174953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed Yes15c784.82$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120277.4%2 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes24c754.29$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.673735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes30c725.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.223050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9352…6db9backed No70c718.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x914a…98acbacked Yes28c710.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No74c682.37$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.622231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes14c650.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1315924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes22c642.94$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.869142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.