Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c753b012d53e4a70167ad6a41e0b909f269874c0297c6d383b1f1f3be505b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $993,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $930,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $993,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 79c | 45,049$35,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,535.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 22c | 34,124$7,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,375.22 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 20c | 31,032$6,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,068.42 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…1ad2backed Yes | 29c | 30,071$8,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,825.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 33cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa3…7948backed Yes | 42c | 29,007$12,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,125.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 67c | 25,165$16,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,279.11 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 23,466$16,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,590.52 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 21,947$4,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,324.23 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 18c | 21,928$4,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.13 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 65c | 20,941$13,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,325.51 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed No | 68c | 19,868$13,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,443.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…af9bbacked No | 77c | 17,608$13,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,051.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 24c | 16,791$3,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,996.24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 30c | 15,131$4,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488.53 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 77c | 12,287$9,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.03 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 24c | 11,255$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,752 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 10,342$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.24 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 9,496$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.66 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 8,007$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.56 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 76c | 7,673$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.14 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 30c | 7,588$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.11 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 10c | 7,577$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 9c | 7,521$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.27 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 80c | 7,448$5,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.43 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 5c | 7,327$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 75c | 6,920$5,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 17c | 6,793$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.74 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 75c | 6,716$5,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680.57 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…5865backed Yes | 17c | 6,323$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845d…620fbacked Yes | 34c | 5,876$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 11c | 5,697$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.23 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked No | 75c | 5,333$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.71 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 21c | 5,223$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.37 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked No | 76c | 5,000$3,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,898$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 23c | 4,742$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.84 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 76c | 4,632$3,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.77 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 13c | 4,626$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.21 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…72debacked Yes | 19c | 4,299$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,271$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.68 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked No | 77c | 4,237$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 24c | 4,202$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.36 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 16c | 4,179$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.41 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…acb2backed Yes | 10c | 4,002$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 70c | 3,864$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 33c | 3,617$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.91 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 22c | 3,547$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.4 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 26c | 3,468$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.74 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 27c | 3,438$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.88 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 74c | 3,377$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…259dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,153$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 24c | 3,010$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 14c | 3,000$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…0c95backed Yes | 23c | 2,735$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 22c | 2,734$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.99 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 65c | 2,417$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 24c | 2,173$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.13 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 42c | 2,014$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 25c | 2,007$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.07 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 20c | 1,992$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.04 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6615…665dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,897$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5861…66efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,751$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,653$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 8c | 1,561$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 1,467$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 25c | 1,421$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.97 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 14c | 1,415$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.37 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…890cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,368$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,366$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.75 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 73c | 1,323$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 17c | 1,300$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…0020backed Yes | 8c | 1,290$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 7c | 1,236$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 1,181$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed No | 68c | 1,168$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.09 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,163$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 8c | 1,113$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.93 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 31c | 1,102$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.26 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 69c | 1,000$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 70c | 990$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.68 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 78c | 948.79$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.21 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…0977backed Yes | 11c | 906.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 78c | 876.1$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.62 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 79c | 866$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1714…0986backed Yes | 14c | 811.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…73a1backed No | 71c | 795.77$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c1…9b20backed Yes | 15c | 784.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 24c | 754.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.67 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…4893backed Yes | 30c | 725.99$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.22 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…6db9backed No | 70c | 718.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…98acbacked Yes | 28c | 710.21$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 74c | 682.37$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 14c | 650.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 22c | 642.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.