Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7e38997e252198e5601295bdd979347676ada99d9616fe096ce7dcc5f5890b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $199,945
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $204,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,945 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes	3c	13,733$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.97	74	20.3%15 W · 59 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No	78c	8,804$6,845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.08	100	55%55 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes	9c	7,280$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.24	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes	11c	6,345$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.99	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes	25c	5,000$1,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250.5	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	10c	4,313$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.89	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes	9c	3,842$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.44	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	2c	3,800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.62	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	+4.3wins	+0.12per pick	10cpaid	+110.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes	13c	3,736$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.74	115	41.7%48 W · 67 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5d…2b81backed Yes	17c	3,082$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes	12c	3,000$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.98	103	24.3%25 W · 78 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	86	15.1%13 W · 73 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes	9c	2,985$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.71	395	22.8%90 W · 305 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes	9c	2,779$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.54	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-77.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes	2c	2,500$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	98	10.2%10 W · 88 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes	11c	2,148$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.97	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed Yes	4c	1,945$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.55	59	22%13 W · 46 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+74.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes	3c	1,938$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.51	284	7.7%22 W · 262 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	152	38.8%59 W · 93 L	-13.5wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-58%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No	72c	916.01$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$256.48	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	826.66$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.19	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	8c	797$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.29	130	29.2%38 W · 92 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes	11c	778.74$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.66	70	14.3%10 W · 60 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes	12c	741$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.9	71	46.5%33 W · 38 L	+9.9wins	+0.14per pick	33cpaid	+84.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes	15c	689.06$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes	9c	661$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.45	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes	13c	400$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes	8c	399.55$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.97	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes	8c	386.88$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.39	177	13%23 W · 154 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes	25c	379.82$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.95	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-58%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8536…7038backed Yes	13c	372.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	9c	360.85$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes	12c	332.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes	14c	285.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes	10c	270$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	46	30.4%14 W · 32 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9360…96d5backed Yes	8c	261.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4338…61e6backed Yes	15c	220$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55b6…bafcbacked Yes	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Yes	12c	164.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.98	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Yes	12c	160.3$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03a5…9d0ebacked Yes	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb1…b398backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes	9c	130.47$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	14c	127$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f6c…c2e8backed Yes	15c	121.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	95	33.7%32 W · 63 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes	13c	113.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	303	19.1%58 W · 245 L	-20.6wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc03f…d8cabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.7wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-63%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a39…ca50backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	36cpaid	+49%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3c7…801bbacked Yes	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd098…3307backed Yes	13c	94.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed No	75c	88.2$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.66	53	43.4%23 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes	13c	82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.66	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6146…312abacked Yes	34c	74.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	28cpaid	-85.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x566d…d58fbacked Yes	34c	74.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	28	50%14 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes	16c	73.75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-3.6wins	-0.26per pick	33cpaid	-90.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	18c	70.2$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes	25c	61.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-5.0wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No	67c	59.97$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.79	83	77.1%64 W · 19 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x40f4…d060backed Yes	19c	55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5610…468bbacked Yes	35c	39.57$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a71…0f0fbacked No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6d…3141backed No	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?this page
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event