Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d3f9c99af44cd3ff8daaa51a9af49e7dacdd42a88d5beb0cf01a8b4eba4725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 5c | 3,355$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,272$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 8c | 630.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 6c | 427.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…986fbacked Yes | 51c | 401.94$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 8c | 397.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1f…aa60backed Yes | 5c | 394.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 49c | 379.17$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 355.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 236.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 10c | 235.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 9c | 222.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367d…1b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 144.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in his first 100 days?this page
- Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days?No won
- Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?Yes won
- Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.