TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,466,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,559,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,466,254 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 391 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62cf…5826backed No72c155,591$111,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,732.681553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes21c61,783$12,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,834.041020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes22c53,692$12,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,012.421631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No76c39,833$30,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,498.4537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes21c37,243$7,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,751.592339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d7…bc74backed Yes9c34,903$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes9c32,822$3,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.074814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed Yes30c30,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes26c28,786$7,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,380.062638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes18c28,361$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,084.814522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes24c27,978$6,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,624.577331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes25c27,807$6,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,941.671118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-53.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes8c27,737$2,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-75.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No73c26,825$19,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,210.5815646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes20c24,101$4,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,737.149533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes16c20,127$3,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,153.4810324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed No70c19,821$13,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,879.48875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes4c19,556$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.47420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes12c18,709$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,335.0711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No68c17,588$11,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,651.4110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9b…4d6cbacked Yes7c17,467$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.511338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-43.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes4c12,690$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.632623.1%6 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes11c12,193$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.043859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes9c12,082$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.728615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c11,942$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.12847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfb…e789backed Yes9c10,683$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-79.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee57…4cb0backed Yes3c10,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No79c9,610$7,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.463441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes26c9,374$2,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4652326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes29c8,461$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.363925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa84…cc4cbacked No70c7,929$5,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.921060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes18c7,441$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.1913029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes27c7,030$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.2412649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd875…f21abacked Yes6c6,976$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes14c6,521$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.353844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cf…0569backed No77c6,276$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes21c5,272$1,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid+9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0639…78debacked Yes77c5,272$4,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,067.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b9…4069backed Yes37c5,020$1,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,856.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Yes11c4,868$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.792231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes9c4,828$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.261216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5184…4517backed Yes19c4,770$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes3c4,500$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.483721.6%8 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+110.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2a3…c8debacked Yes21c4,430$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.1240%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed Yes17c4,305$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.153154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No19c4,229$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,441.154136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes7c4,190$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9279…fef9backed Yes12c4,152$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Yes5c4,134$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.441241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9bf…7424backed Yes7c4,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes7c3,553$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.531931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked No69c3,500$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0855038%19 W · 31 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc0…907bbacked Yes30c3,350$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes12c3,300$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3843138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes13c3,249$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.114934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-18%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes16c3,210$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.332029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…531ebacked Yes27c3,000$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…986fbacked No74c2,706$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.543020%6 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-61.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd543…b262backed Yes34c2,640$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.6140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes6c2,632$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.49520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2541…4f1ebacked No79c2,551$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes23c2,475$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5753923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes16c1,842$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.482343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd49…0d55backed Yes6c1,827$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.11414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes15c1,788$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2609142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes19c1,719$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.633721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No74c1,707$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.118453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes33c1,653$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.8341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbfe…5087backed Yes12c1,603$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-62.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes39c1,601$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.325916.9%10 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-62.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes11c1,532$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.19368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes9c1,510$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.987428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e84…4b92backed Yes30c1,500$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes19c1,484$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes3c1,400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.79810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No77c1,390$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.993751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes18c1,382$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6717021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…e5f3backed Yes52c1,380$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No72c1,273$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.153161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5725…36e3backed Yes14c1,250$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.83540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes6c1,228$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes17c1,227$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.763735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes12c1,210$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5315924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes34c1,182$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.711347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No68c1,172$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.811336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbb…dc2bbacked No60c1,147$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.064247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb73…c340backed Yes31c1,145$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No69c1,127$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.323149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes18c1,115$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.91618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes15c1,110$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.433423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes6c1,110$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes26c1,100$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.649846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes13c1,100$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c1,095$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac92…67efbacked Yes19c1,039$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-68%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes16c1,037$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.92123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes4c1,022$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fea…d383backed No27c1,003$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.685922%13 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+74.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.