TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0dde…94c3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
97
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 54 out of 100; worst AI at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT3161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,049.72
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$335Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+49.3%+$165
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$569Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$569.45
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+90.1%+$177.97
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$362Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.6%+$125.24
Will RFK end COVID-19 vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71%+$876.34
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$425.2
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 10 executive orders in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$777Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$776.64
Will Trump cut Medicaid before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.62
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$56
Will Trump release more Epstein files in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
US military action against Iran before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.1
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,054.57
Will Trump cut military spending?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$832Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+68.6%+$570.87
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+30.6%+$84.15
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$837Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$226.98
"Drain the Swamp Act" passes the House before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+25.6%+$15.97
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$911Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+39.8%+$362.15
Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+110.1%+$64.63
Will Trump recognize Somaliland in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$16.64
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+238.9%+$116.56
Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+252.2%+$135.94
Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$89.39
Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$35.16
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.6%+$228.69
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$82.88
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$685Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$174.48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$58.85
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$601Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+29.4%+$176.67
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$39.4
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+29.6%+$56.66
Israel military action against Qatar in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,150
Israel strike on Damascus by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$37.99
Strike on Israel's Dimonah nuclear base in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$24
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$292.05
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$220.72
Iran x Israel conflict ends by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+26.1%+$30.17
Israel announces ceasefire by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+34.7%+$39.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$77.78
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+41%+$126.67
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,842Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.3%+$1,651.43
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$104.3
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$118
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$79.61
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$50.99
Nothing Ever Happens backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,209Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+46.9%+$2,444.51
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.45
Trump cuts Ukraine aid before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+32.7%+$7.4
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+58.7%+$18.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$13.45
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$76
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+46.2%+$96.3
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+44%+$47.87
French confidence vote fails?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$252Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+25.1%+$63.3
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$4.91
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Trump designate cartels as terrorists before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$102.77
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$94.15
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+33.9%+$45.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,516Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+34.6%+$525.38
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$823Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$281.32
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$381.38
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$391.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ye banned on X in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+63.7%+$115.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$632Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+46.7%+$294.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Taiwan military clash by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$130
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.