TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$720,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$660,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $720,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc658…b784backed No24c44,425$10,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,618.177041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd262…8553backed Yes77c43,301$33,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes74c36,788$27,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,521.111952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No21c31,440$6,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,568.096246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No28c24,389$6,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,799.083548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No14c17,801$2,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.119426.6%25 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8452…9056backed No29c16,679$4,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,798.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No6c14,000$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.591747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No15c11,013$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.3917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes72c10,744$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.422245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbec7…6cfdbacked Yes79c10,211$8,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,192.451478.6%11 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+119.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No5c10,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x844d…ae47backed No1c9,131$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes75c8,800$6,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.9916943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb425…366bbacked Yes79c7,646$6,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No22c7,380$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.6517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…8acebacked No7c7,358$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.962646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No18c6,840$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.711848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes64c6,530$4,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.254938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked No19c6,430$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.751421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e8e…7737backed No28c6,018$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes75c5,458$4,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.262524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No29c5,428$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,598.975641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a7…b737backed No10c5,150$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd28b…af39backed No8c5,000$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.991631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…a467backed No9c4,819$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No23c4,731$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.856442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd641…e37cbacked No33c4,686$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes68c4,500$3,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4231553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes75c4,364$3,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.322321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No25c4,126$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.811940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed No20c4,000$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.693959%23 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c3,920$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.0499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No54c3,750$2,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.2123639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No30c3,719$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.646634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No26c3,697$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.773859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40bb…72bebacked No30c3,389$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed No2c3,361$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.648820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x540d…235bbacked No29c3,328$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed Yes75c3,205$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.781330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No2c3,164$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.886530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes66c3,132$2,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed No20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff01…73ccbacked No18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c2,963$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.49931.1%1 W · 92 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-94.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes58c2,885$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.9721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No11c2,884$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.066131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes53c2,881$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.881560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+53.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xed13…e733backed No4c2,606$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked No30c2,551$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.995928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No14c2,509$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.035437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes77c2,442$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.191942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No15c2,410$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.5713540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No25c2,409$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.954814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes74c2,190$1,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.4537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab4…fa65backed Yes69c2,180$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac61…f5f7backed No27c2,133$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.311833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457b…1280backed No2c2,081$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0590…256bbacked No22c2,034$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.72313%3 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No25c2,030$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.813525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c13…b4d0backed Yes75c1,984$1,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes33c1,925$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.057146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8342…13c9backed Yes75c1,886$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed No6c1,797$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.544231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No17c1,765$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd86e…338dbacked No6c1,761$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5d5…5819backed No57c1,699$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.4640%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed No1c1,688$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No2c1,635$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.365341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No4c1,629$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9114125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7014…678bbacked No30c1,589$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.72944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a12…c455backed No11c1,587$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No28c1,572$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.86354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bc…33c6backed No8c1,516$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+57%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed Yes70c1,500$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4453959%23 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No68c1,500$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.9820446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2831…c51cbacked No35c1,488$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.59450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad86…cd10backed Yes75c1,445$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes76c1,443$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.764650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No6c1,423$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4285…e5ddbacked No6c1,417$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67db…21adbacked No7c1,362$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.531926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7103…43b9backed Yes77c1,301$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes79c1,250$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.432744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes71c1,241$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.64438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No28c1,234$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8521022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes74c1,200$884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3163138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7997…fc95backed Yes75c1,199$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdadd…e141backed Yes74c1,190$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes79c1,188$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.7816854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No8c1,159$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6228320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No15c1,122$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.432626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…d58dbacked No30c1,101$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes72c1,086$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.081,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8225…c4a8backed Yes43c1,049$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.951154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b37…de68backed Yes72c1,032$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b87…2e2fbacked No6c1,023$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…995fbacked No7c1,007$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.2737844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.