TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb35b…fc08

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
332
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Music, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2025, EDT17823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 178 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Who will get drafted first: Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward?backed Ward · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$60.71
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 0 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104,303Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$104,302.76
Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,655Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+69.5%+$1,844.94
Will Dallas Goedert score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,123Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+31.6%+$670.43
Will Marquise Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+33.3%+$46.52
Will Isiah Pacheco score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$214.79
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,297Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+179%+$2,322.09
Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,248Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+31.6%+$1,340.46
Will Kareem Hunt score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$464Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+72.4%+$335.99
Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$12.4
Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$2,964Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,963.99
Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$459.98
Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$113.4
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30,517Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30,516.83
Commanders vs. Eaglesbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,923Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$1,922.54
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$55,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$55,876.85
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55,824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$55,824.41
Commanders vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20,084Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20,084.44
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19,314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19,313.67
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$130,299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$130,298.55
Commanders vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$10,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10,589.77
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$83,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$83,070.26
Broncos vs. Billsbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26,556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$26,556.46
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$433.89
Showing 25 of 178 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT5911.9%7 W · 52 L-6.5wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Which conference wins NBA Finals?backed East · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$209
Bucks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,363Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$6,363.07
Rockets vs. Hawksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,601Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+66.7%+$3,070.98
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$22,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22,306.45
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,797Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+234.5%+$4,214.88
Celtics vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$6,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$6,111.51
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$7,947Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$7,947.3
Cavaliers vs. Rocketsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$6,461Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$6,461.37
Pistons vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$23.32
Suns vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$404.58
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$5,923Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$5,922.83
Heat vs. Clippersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$2,040
Warriors vs. Raptorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,746Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,746.28
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$3,481.07
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericksbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,667Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,667.04
Heat vs. Kingsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12,527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$12,527.45
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,664Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,664
Suns vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,374Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$2,374.43
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13,324Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13,324.07
Kings vs. Lakersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$2,954Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$2,953.86
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$30
76ers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$34.4
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$19,519.36
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$15,116.36
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$2,242Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,241.71
Trump divorce in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88.73
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.68
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$5,579Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,578.64
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.43
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.26
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$376Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$375.95
Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,487Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,486.64
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$36.3
Will Trump impose tariff on oil from Mexico or Canada by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$112.88
Will Trump impose tariffs on China before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$356.02
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$155.24
Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 100 or more times during the next White House press briefing?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+112.8%+$26.5
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$78.34
Will Tulsi Gabbard be a member of the Trump administration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$27
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$192.94
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+51.5%+$340
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+68%+$9,380.01
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed rate hike in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$140
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$115
Will Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14.54
Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+566.7%+$81.62
Will Powell say "price" 15 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$165.83
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$37.13
Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14.54
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$489.77
Will Powell say "deport" or "deportation" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+29.9%+$190.6
Will Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$232.68
Will Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$32.56
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$322.31
All 12 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick24cpaid-4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$187
Will 'Not Like Us' win Song of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+244.8%+$305.54
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Song of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+152%+$867.32
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$341.99
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will '360' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$16.88
Will Raye win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$13.81
Will Shaboozey win Best New Artist?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$31.67
Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$312
Will "Carnival" by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti win Best Rap Song?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+43.4%+$21.2
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Karla Sofía Gascón win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$36.96
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+172.3%+$139.2
Will 'September 5' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$98
Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$11.36
Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+279.7%+$1,105
Will 'Nickel Boys' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+79.6%+$266
Will 'A Complete Unknown' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$178.2
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$214.99
Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 9 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-57.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$23.36
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$163.24
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,790Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+31%+$866.17
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$300.4
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,306.07
Will Joni Ernst vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+107.3%+$64.49
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$79.43
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$3,672Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$3,671.74
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Liberty win the 2024 WNBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
WNBA: Lynx vs. Mercury Game 2backed Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2024, EDT+41.4%+$146.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$1,111.88
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$634Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$633.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$57.33
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$60.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$17.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Islandersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.