TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,655 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5172…0581backed No1c15,000$150 inLost-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked No71c9,089$6,453 inLost-$6,453.114047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…3842backed Yes29c5,310$1,540 inWon+$3,770.031136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x890f…19cbbacked Yes29c5,234$1,500 inWon+$3,733.621233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No1c5,000$50 inLost-$501450%7 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+630%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No72c4,115$2,964 inLost-$2,963.9917823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No2c3,000$60 inLost-$6014926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c3,000$30 inLost-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+520.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes22c1,893$420 inWon+$1,473.451233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769c…4f7ebacked Yes29c510$148 inWon+$362.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes26c501.33$130 inWon+$37110937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf0a…9ad1backed Yes27c500$135 inWon+$3653100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+144.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Yes26c332.85$87 inWon+$246.3111446.5%53 W · 61 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…b18cbacked Yes28c196.43$55 inWon+$141.4316645.8%76 W · 90 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c13…2096backed Yes29c172.41$50 inWon+$122.411250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+43.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes27c90.07$24 inWon+$65.7559453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8183…70c8backed Yes28c71.43$20 inWon+$51.43742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b4…9cf8backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon+$48.97785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31ed…a97dbacked No72c25$18 inLost-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-63.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed No75c20$15 inLost-$158248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes74c15$11 inWon+$3.94615.2%7 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.