NFL · resolved market
Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x314cce8a413b072647dfd40a3a753486dd10f046b566d6ff772664ce0d1388d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 17c | 1,471$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 80c | 754.02$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.21 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…48f2backed Yes | 15c | 673.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.42 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…74eabacked Yes | 20c | 509.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.53 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…f2e5backed Yes | 15c | 320$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…b2c1backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0c…6565backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…c23bbacked Yes | 19c | 106.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 19c | 102.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…96d5backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e9…fd77backed Yes | 19c | 89.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…89acbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…db8ebacked Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…29eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeAndre Hopkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Dallas Goedert score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will E.J. Jenkins score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Grant Calcaterra score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Isiah Pacheco score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Johnny Wilson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JuJu Smith-Schuster score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Justin Watson score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will KC Chiefs D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kareem Hunt score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Kenneth Gainwell score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Marquise Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Noah Gray score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will PHI Eagles D/ST score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Patrick Mahomes score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.