TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb5b…69eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
444
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 57 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT14441%59 W · 85 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 144 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+66.9%+$26.78
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$18.39
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Fulham FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+124.1%+$24.82
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 144 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT8756.3%49 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 87 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.12
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$33.13
Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.18
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$67.59
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.92
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.41
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.49
Athletics vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
Athletics vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.48
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.64
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
First Round Pool A: Panama vs. Colombiabacked Panama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
First Round Pool A: Colombia vs. Puerto Ricobacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Royals vs. Angelsbacked Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
White Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Astros vs. Athleticsbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Orioles vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Rangers vs. Athleticsbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Cubs vs. Rockiesbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Padres vs. Twinsbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Angels vs. Astrosbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Yankees vs. White Soxbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Showing 25 of 87 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST5554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Panthers vs. Saintsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Packers vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Ravens vs. Bengalsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Steelers vs. Ravensbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+233.3%+$46.67
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Commanders vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Falcons vs. Jetsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Jaguars vs. Titansbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Texans vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+270.4%+$54.07
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Chiefs vs. Broncosbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
49ers vs. Cardinalsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Seahawks vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT2931%9 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$73.87
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$7.06
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$25.76
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+270.4%+$54.07
Will Villarreal CF vs. FC København end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+132.6%+$26.51
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Tottenham Hotspur win on 2025-09-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Ajax Amsterdam win on 2025-09-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Inter vs. Feyenoord end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Liverpool vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+92.3%+$18.46
Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will PSV Eindhoven vs. Juventus end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT2653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$37.14
Will AZ win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+68.5%+$13.71
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will AZ win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2025-12-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Rangers win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Will Lyon win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Will FC Basel win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will AS Roma win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Will Aberdeen win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will PAOK win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Will Panathinaikos win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Malmo FF win on 2025-08-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Will Fenerbahce win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will FC Twente beat Bodo Glimt?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+94%+$18.8
Will Galatasaray beat AZ Alkmaar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Ajax Amsterdam beat Union St.-Gilloise?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+212.5%+$42.5
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-62.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.88
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.87
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.86
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 Valero Texas Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.27
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 U.S. Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+506.1%+$126.52
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 PGA Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreevabacked Iga Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.52
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.53
Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Filsbacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Miami Open: Belinda Bencic vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.82
Miami Open: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Muchovabacked Karolina Muchova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Miami Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Grigor Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
BNP Paribas Open: Arthur Fils vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$12.31
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mbokobacked Aryna Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12.63
BNP Paribas Open: Karolina Muchova vs Iga Swiatekbacked Iga Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$19.77
BNP Paribas Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Casper Ruudbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$12.31
BNP Paribas Open: Terence Atmane vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Grigor Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbertbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 13 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+75.8%+$15.17
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.7%+$26.67
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+138.1%+$27.62
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 12 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+81.8%+$16.36
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+53.8%+$6.46
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+73.3%+$14.66
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-02-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Siena Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.88
BYU vs. Wisconsinbacked Wisconsin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Colorado State vs. Memphisbacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Baylor vs. Mississippi Statebacked Mississippi State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 4 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.