Premier League · resolved market
Will Fulham FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9df153c095b96bfbecc4f17fecfc14c850aff91d84f3d790aa5dfd3338517ca4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 24c | 16,852$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.3 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 13,870$10,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,608.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 29c | 8,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 3,340$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.17 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 74c | 2,705$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.26 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 18c | 2,186$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.51 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 78c | 2,144$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.65 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 162 | 38.3%62 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 1,688$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.5 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 71c | 929$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.41 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 880.15$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.02 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3b…63b7backed Yes | 29c | 828$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.12 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 72c | 793.12$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 784.94$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.57 | 1,220 | 49.8%607 W · 613 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed Yes | 30c | 633.33$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Yes | 12c | 574.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 70c | 557.53$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.26 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 15c | 530$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 19c | 457.66$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 197 | 32.5%64 W · 133 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…fdb0backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 17c | 292.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…c098backed Yes | 30c | 286.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 80c | 252$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 21c | 206.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 255 | 30.2%77 W · 178 L | -22.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…6e96backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 64c | 173.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked No | 79c | 171$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Yes | 29c | 169.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…8105backed Yes | 67c | 150.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…cb54backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3940…9e72backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 72c | 109.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed No | 63c | 108.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da8…a481backed Yes | 65c | 106.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…08f1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 71c | 97.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 451 | 42.6%192 W · 259 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…e6febacked Yes | 22c | 92.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ec…6fc4backed Yes | 30c | 80.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2037…a613backed Yes | 23c | 67.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Yes | 55c | 64.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 35c | 62.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 65c | 60.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 70 | 82.9%58 W · 12 L | +14.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 70c | 59.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 226 | 58.8%133 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 77c | 56.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 29c | 56.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…b18abacked Yes | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 52.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 22c | 51.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…4766backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 401 | 57.6%231 W · 170 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…819cbacked Yes | 28c | 49.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 382 | 33.2%127 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 71c | 41.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 71c | 40.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7226…873dbacked No | 70c | 39.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…c496backed No | 72c | 36.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…70f0backed Yes | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 29c | 36.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 408 | 41.9%171 W · 237 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 35.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…68f1backed Yes | 65c | 33.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6d…c504backed Yes | 66c | 30.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd148…1327backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked No | 50c | 27.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.0wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe971…e19bbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 77c | 19.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed No | 71c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fulham FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will Fulham FC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.