TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,199,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,280,506

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,199,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd2b…8e50backed Cardinals12c181,383$21,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,585.5610026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked 49ers72c90,128$64,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,307.5730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed 49ers64c83,943$53,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,219.4127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers68c69,252$46,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,470.8320755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed 49ers64c62,380$39,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,457.1319553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Cardinals36c60,000$21,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,60016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Cardinals37c55,000$20,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,3502227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed 49ers63c54,000$34,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,979.9916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Cardinals36c40,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,4005236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed 49ers64c39,438$25,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,197.53256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Cardinals36c37,193$13,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,389.442245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed Cardinals37c30,586$11,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,316.911118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed 49ers63c30,000$18,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,10024957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Cardinals36c30,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,799.9319645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed 49ers64c23,208$14,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,354.924264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed 49ers63c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cardinals36c19,427$6,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,993.8812744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Cardinals37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5506451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Cardinals37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5504944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 49ers62c12,563$7,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,773.9921254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Cardinals41c10,613$4,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,351.511649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Cardinals36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cardinals37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed 49ers80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Cardinals36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed 49ers79c9,704$7,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.82343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Cardinals23c9,600$2,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20813142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Cardinals37c9,378$3,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.787248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cardinals36c9,354$3,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,367.4444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers60c8,969$5,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,594.5253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb29…ea29backed Cardinals37c8,680$3,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,211.451573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed 49ers67c8,646$5,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,814.27944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed 49ers64c8,000$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8804134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc03…1548backed Cardinals38c7,200$2,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.936624.2%16 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+81.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Cardinals38c6,579$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5005464.8%35 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+32.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x08eb…aaa8backed 49ers64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers67c5,586$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,846.6547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Cardinals1c5,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Cardinals35c5,487$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.9218044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed 49ers64c5,469$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.7518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Cardinals0c5,450$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-87.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Cardinals0c5,192$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.385679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed 49ers63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8505851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cardinals36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Cardinals36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8008845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Cardinals36c5,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Cardinals25c4,549$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.348532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d44…53fdbacked 49ers64c4,500$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2e…7f88backed Cardinals37c4,500$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,66520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Cardinals37c4,500$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.9926547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed 49ers62c4,410$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.8530743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c1…73d8backed Cardinals37c4,200$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a33…5325backed 49ers64c4,200$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49e8…3613backed Cardinals37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,48020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6c…69d0backed 49ers64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4402100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Cardinals36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.994330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb1…37d4backed Cardinals36c3,671$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed 49ers64c3,420$2,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.24940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Cardinals17c3,333$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.6114438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef47…5c40backed Cardinals8c3,318$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed 49ers64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1253560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Cardinals13c3,122$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6211643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Cardinals1c3,120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked 49ers64c3,115$1,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.2412151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed 49ers63c3,000$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Cardinals37c2,960$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.214945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked 49ers65c2,923$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.085358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Cardinals35c2,750$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.57732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b8e1backed 49ers64c2,620$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Cardinals36c2,598$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.29119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-78.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Cardinals30c2,556$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75721454.7%117 W · 97 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x429b…0688backed Cardinals37c2,448$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Cardinals38c2,416$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.7683447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed 49ers64c2,385$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.453174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x81ec…f8b2backed Cardinals36c2,380$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cardinals10c2,210$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed 49ers63c2,181$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.845756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Cardinals1c2,150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61013%3 W · 98 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals42c2,130$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.3731848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed 49ers63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals23c2,000$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.6756852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked 49ers63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7403961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed 49ers63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74010144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked 49ers70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6005766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcc…4324backed Cardinals39c2,000$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.992020%4 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-53.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x383d…a9f2backed 49ers57c1,988$1,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.596349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Cardinals2c1,806$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3414215.5%22 W · 120 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Cardinals38c1,800$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.7914443.8%63 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f76…e8dcbacked 49ers59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.921154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Cardinals37c1,650$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.237050%35 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed 49ers78c1,604$1,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.874257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee05…812fbacked 49ers63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.32556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Cardinals1c1,555$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.554311.6%7 W · 424 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Cardinals36c1,500$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-53%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed 49ers65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5252245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Cardinals14c1,464$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals36c1,453$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.141,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked 49ers59c1,322$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.034351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Cardinals37c1,302$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed Cardinals16c1,274$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-77.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.