NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa705dbe8e61a8bd0ed517d6e139c473bc40d51667735e05bcf4376b15276a90b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $257,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed 49ers | 50c | 84,311$41,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,365.97 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 50c | 79,225$39,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,657.71 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed 49ers | 49c | 40,000$19,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,400 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cardinals | 52c | 37,536$19,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,517.43 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 49c | 16,457$8,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,320.52 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Cardinals | 50c | 15,982$7,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,990.9 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers | 50c | 14,189$7,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,098.06 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed 49ers | 48c | 10,430$5,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,423.6 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 9,995$4,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,997.4 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed Cardinals | 50c | 9,975$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked 49ers | 48c | 8,100$3,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,211.99 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cardinals | 51c | 8,075$4,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,118.15 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cardinals | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Cardinals | 49c | 7,196$3,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,526.04 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cardinals | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Cardinals | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Cardinals | 51c | 2,320$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.07 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 45c | 1,591$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.99 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked 49ers | 68c | 1,299$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.67 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked 49ers | 49c | 989$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.63 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f97…13d2backed Cardinals | 52c | 878.85$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…1760backed 49ers | 49c | 878.53$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Cardinals | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Cardinals | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35de…b39abacked 49ers | 50c | 598$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 49c | 588.7$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.24 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cardinals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…478bbacked Cardinals | 52c | 453.85$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…09f1backed 49ers | 49c | 453.63$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Cardinals | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…f400backed 49ers | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Cardinals | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 49ers | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cardinals | 53c | 209.81$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…6b37backed 49ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Cardinals | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cardinals | 30c | 194$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed 49ers | 49c | 176.01$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed 49ers | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cardinals | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cardinals | 50c | 130.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked 49ers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked 49ers | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cardinals | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…6cccbacked 49ers | 50c | 63.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed 49ers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Cardinals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed 49ers | 50c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed 49ers | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed 49ers | 66c | 20.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.