NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30cf4f6e1f8d8f5abaec92017a06ac6f7082e0681871ef014a89c1fc2427a3a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed 49ers | 54c | 14,124$7,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,455.65 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cardinals | 46c | 5,788$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.2 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Cardinals | 44c | 5,000$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.98 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cardinals | 46c | 4,490$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.4 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed 49ers | 53c | 4,074$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.67 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cardinals | 48c | 3,205$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.45 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Cardinals | 41c | 2,832$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.12 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cardinals | 42c | 2,230$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed 49ers | 60c | 1,333$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.33 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers | 56c | 851.63$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.72 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed 49ers | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.23 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed 49ers | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cardinals | 43c | 469.02$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed 49ers | 52c | 416$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed 49ers | 58c | 390$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked 49ers | 58c | 284.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 41c | 266.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked 49ers | 52c | 209.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cardinals | 48c | 198.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed 49ers | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…a50ebacked 49ers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked 49ers | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked 49ers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 40c | 172.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked 49ers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed 49ers | 59c | 168.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed 49ers | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed 49ers | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…1df2backed 49ers | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Cardinals | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked 49ers | 59c | 105.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 40c | 73.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…308bbacked 49ers | 60c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Cardinals | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed 49ers | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cardinals | 50c | 42.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed 49ers | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.