NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80da4c418fa408876fc1e6f4828c699d0a265634dd4f08127137f50f65514f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Under | 46c | 24,319$11,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,186.63 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 10,793$5,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,964.78 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 8,434$4,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 8,214$4,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,787.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Over | 54c | 1,154$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.7 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 54c | 765$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.9 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -53%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 350$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 318$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068f…4594backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 54c | 150.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 54c | 122$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 72.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 138 | 42%58 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 32.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 56c | 32.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 54c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-0.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.